Just a short diary on the Ryan pick for VP. About a month ago, Rachael Maddow said that she must be the only person in America who thought Ryan would be the VP choice. I told my sister that, no, she would be the 2nd.
Because, 14 months ago, an MM member wrote this:
Since you cannot get political news
I will bring you this from the future:
Rep. Paul Ryan would be the best fit for Romney. I wrote earlier that he would choose someone with fundie or TP cred. I will amend that to eliminate the fundie side. The last thing Romney wants is to open the religion issue in his campaign. A fundie VP pick would do just that. So TP it is and Ryan fits to a T. Romney's no spring chicken (64) and Ryan gives him some youth and sex appeal.
The weird thing is this would be similar to the Dole/Kemp ticket of '96 (although Kemp wasn't young). Get this, Ryan was a speechwriter for Kemp back in the '90s. That's spooky.
by: virginislandsguy @ Sun May 29, 2011 at 09:16:31 AM EDT
It goes without saying that this move by RMoney is a sign of desperation and weakness.
For my next trick, I'm predicting that the BLS employment numbers for August, September and October will be good to explosive on the upside. This is because the seasonal adjustments have been out of whack for the last 3 years.
Floyd Norris of the NYT analyzes this in "Another (Seasonally Adjusted) Slowdown"
The result is that the seasonal adjustments make things look better than they are in the winter, when fewer workers are being let go than the government expects, and worse in the spring and summer, when the workers who were not let go cannot be rehired. There is, of course, more than seasonal adjustment going on, but I suspect that the underlying swings are far more modest than the monthly figures seem to indicate.
If that analysis is correct, the job numbers are likely to seem poor for the next two months, but to pick up with the September report on Oct. 5, and then to look impressive in the October report, which will appear on Nov. 2, four days before the election.
Anecdotally, from the comments:
I know somebody who works for BLS and makes exactly the same argument . I don't know why this is not more widely communicated
If this comes true, it will destroy the sole rationale for RMoneys campaign. I stick by my prediction of Obama 53%, RMoney 43%, Johnson 2%, Goode, etc 2%.