Open Thread: Statistical Tie, Advantage Obama

by: Shaun Appleby

Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 19:22:50 PM EDT



We have no idea what internal polling is showing the respective campaigns but we can try to guess.  Chait suggests the GOP has been conning the media with Romney's momentum and it seems it was working in spite of a small pre-debate lift for Obama.  The substance of the debate isn't the issue at this point but thank goodness its behind us with a tailwind:


Romney only has two weeks left to move the needle two points in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, or Wisconsin and any other tilt-Obama state, and relitigating the facts and memes from last night's debate are assured to take up at least a couple of critical days. If Romney's deficit in Ohio is larger than one or two points, then that's a real lost opportunity. Of course, if the Romney campaign believes they have already brought the race back to a dead-heat in Ohio, losing three days worth of lost comeback isn't terrible - so long as the president doesn't outright make gains as a result of the debate.

Nate Cohn - Extraordinarily Tight Race With Fourteen Days To Go New Republic 23 Oct 12

Besides agonising over the next Ohio or other state poll guessing the internals is the only game in town.
Shaun Appleby :: Open Thread: Statistical Tie, Advantage Obama
After a head-fake over North Carolina Romney's people sent Ryan to Pennsylvania for more of the same.  So here we are:


"We know what we know, and they know what they know," Axelrod added of Romney and his advisers. "We'll know who's bluffing and who isn't in two weeks. And we're looking forward to it."

"Romney has not been able to knock us out of a single battleground," added Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

Greg Sargent - The Obama camp's view of the race's final stretch Washington Post 23 Oct 12

We'll see.  "Anybody who thinks those states are in the bag is half in the bag themselves."
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Open Thread: Statistical Tie, Advantage Obama | 151 comments
Cillizza... (2.00 / 7)
Makes the unusual good point that the notion of "pulling out" of a battleground is antiquated given the cash resources of the campaigns and adds:


How then should you judge what the swingiest of the swing states are in these final two weeks if advertising dollars are no longer a good measure?  Easy. Watch where the two presidential nominees go.  Neither campaign will send their guy to a state that they don't think is winnable. So, Obama is in Ohio and Florida today while Romney is in Nevada and Colorado today.

Chris Cillizza - Why neither Obama nor Romney will "pull out" of any swing state Washington Post 23 Oct 12

So Florida is still on the table, good to know.

Romney was in Nevada (2.00 / 7)
because of Sheldon Adelson. Nevada is not a toss-up state. Colorado was on itinerary because this is their last Western swing, period.

My go-to pollster is now the Mellman Group. Great track record in 2010 and Jon Ralston thinks highly of them. They see Nevada O +8 and I'm buying that as the final margin. They also have Virginia O +1 and New Hampshire O +3.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Early Voting... (2.00 / 8)
Seems very promising:


The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama had a lead of 53% to 42% among the 17% of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote.

In the crucial swing state of Ohio, a new Time poll finds Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among those who have voted early, 60% to 30%.

Taegan Goddard - Obama Holds Big Lead Among Early Voters Political Wire 24 Oct 12

Bring it on.

[ Parent ]
Not to Mention... (2.00 / 7)
Better at math than Republicans:


The Obama campaign and its supporters spent $77 million on 112,730 advertisements from Oct. 1 to Oct. 21, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks and analyzes political ad spending. Romney and his allies, by contrast, spent more money - $87 million - on 15,000 fewer spots than their opponents.

Dan Eggen - Obama maintains ad advantage despite being outspent by GOP Washington Post 24 Oct 12

Seems the Obama campaign "read the manual" on campaign finance fine print.

[ Parent ]
Campaigns get the Lowest Unit Rate (2.00 / 4)
Rove- and Koch-PACs do not.
[ Parent ]
Of fer fuck's sake ... really?! (2.00 / 8)
NEW ALBANY, Ind. - Indiana Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock said Tuesday when a woman is impregnated during a rape, "it's something God intended."

Mourdock, who's been locked in a tight race with Democratic challenger Rep. Joe Donnelly, was asked during the final minutes of a debate whether abortion should be allowed in cases of rape or incest.

"I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize that life is that gift from God. And, I think, even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happened," Mourdock said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49...

So, again, the woman gets screwed 'cause that baby's soooo much more important.  Until it comes out then it is off to war with the little bugger.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

Evangelical Christianity... (2.00 / 7)
Increasingly seems to be a cargo cult of simplistic notions stretched to fit a suspiciously broad range of prejudices and bigotries that would be socially unacceptable expressed in any other context.
[ Parent ]
Precisely. (2.00 / 5)
I'd submit your statement as definition.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 
[ Parent ]
But... (2.00 / 4)
Good news for Joe Donnelly.  Last poll in early October had Mourdock up by 5%.  This could change.
[ Parent ]
heh (2.00 / 8)
DougHenwood 7:32pm via Tweetbot for iOS

Why aren't these Republican rape apologists not concerned about the violation of property rights over their women?



"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Just saw this on Slate: No Exception (2.00 / 8)
No Exception
Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock aren't outliers. Banning abortion for rape victims is the new Republican mainstream.

http://www.slate.com/articles/...

An excellent review of R's and where they stand.

"If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition"

Bernice Johnson Reagon

[ Parent ]
The media hates Obama (2.00 / 4)
believe me, this is true. They can't stand him and his administration. They don't get the access they want, they don't get the respect they think they deserve. He handpicks who he gives interviews to, etc.

They hate him and Romney has been smart to butter them up (see the flag football game over the weekend). that's the real strategy Romney is brilliant at- set the narrative by buying the media's friendship.

It's working  

It Was Ever Thus (2.00 / 4)
With a few mythological exceptions.  The fact that the media incentives follow clear corporate aspirations and they are only ever judged by ratings doesn't help either.  But we're almost down to the point where anything but votes just doesn't matter.  Two short weeks.
[ Parent ]
I Swear... (2.00 / 4)
I'm cancelling my cable subscription after election day no matter what the outcome.  It's bad enough having these people shilling for corporate interests while dishing the news but I'm over paying them for it.
[ Parent ]
Go for it (2.00 / 6)
When I get my next place it will be:
Over the air antenna (OTA), mainly for PBS and sports
Broadband internet-DSL or Cable and torrents
Netflix
Public Library for DVDs that I can, uh, evaluate

This minimizes commercials that are approaching 25% of the total time. I don't want my 2 yo daughter growing up with all this consumerism shit.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Agreed (2.00 / 6)
I live in an isolated rural area and we only see the strip malls maybe three or four times a year.  It always gives me a headache and, frankly, a heartache.
[ Parent ]
I don't think so (2.00 / 8)
I read an article about the last debate, a Fox News reporter said the press room went ballistic with cheers and applause when Obama came out with the "horses and bayonets" quip.

They want a horse race, they don't hate Obama.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
I do think the media isn't happy that they get so few juicy (2.00 / 6)
stories out of the Obama Administration and/or family.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Breaking the Donald Dropped a fraking BOMBSHELL (2.00 / 10)

No really he said he'd give 5 million to charity to see Obama's "records"

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL!

"I honor the place in you where Spirit lives
I honor the place in you which is
of Love, of Truth, of Light, of Peace,
when you are in that place in you,
and I am in that place in me,
then we are One."  Namaste Friends!

SRSLY? (2.00 / 9)
That's it?  That's the bombshell?

Photobucket

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
Rumor is that he was going (2.00 / 8)
to go with "The Obamas drew up divorce papers!!! (but never filed)". This got leaked and media tested but the response of the public was more ho-hum and sympathetic. Supposedly, the response of the Romney campaign was to spike it. Hence this weak sauce.

The rumored Gloria Allred bombshell of Mitt committing perjury for his Staples CEO buddy has some possibilities. It reinforces every stereotype of Romney.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Trouble with her releasing it (2.00 / 4)
Is that the media will promptly toss it in the dustbin of "crazy man-hating feminist radical attention-grabbing suit-happy celebrity lawyer spewing her usual nonsense" and not follow up.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
Is it possible this idiot has no clue how absolutely rediculous (2.00 / 7)
he looks with this bullshit?  I wish POTUS would rhetorically smack him so hard with this nonsense.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Naw (2.00 / 6)
What this buffoon really needs -- and dreads above all else -- is a good thorough ignoring.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
Leave it to Twitter... (2.00 / 5)
They will mock him into irrelevance.
[ Parent ]
"Crass" (2.00 / 7)
While suiting him perfectly fails to capture his malignancy.
[ Parent ]
I just love this headline (2.00 / 10)
Donald Trump announces that he's still an idiot
http://www.examiner.com/articl...

last line:

Shortly after the announcement, New York Magazine's Twitter feed stated "Our expectations about @realDonaldTrump's Obama announcement were clearly not low enough."


"If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition"

Bernice Johnson Reagon

[ Parent ]
Heh (2.00 / 6)
Interesting "where are they now" retrospective on the "netroots."  Makes me realise what a unique and exceptional little set-up we've got here.  Sigh.
This quote says it all (2.00 / 7)
"They [lefty blogs] may still be one of the most influential groups on the American left, but this is still the American left we are talking about,"
...
"It's a little like talking about who is the best player on the Washington Wizards. In 2008 the digital people were new and sparkly enough that they got extra care and feeding by the campaigns, because they didn't really know who was behind all of this. But now those in the Democratic Party who want to ignore it realize that they can."

Bold for emphasis (And I think he meant the Washington Generals)

The Obama Team, as in so many other matters, realized the Netroots were a loose cannon and of, at best, marginal value. More time would have been wasted ministering to the Butthurt Battalions than getting any real work accomplished.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
The Generals could probably take the Wizards right now. (2.00 / 5)
:)

(I've really enjoyed your posts this election season)

Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen

[ Parent ]
Thanks, spiffy (2.00 / 7)
Like I said in my first (evah) comments, I hope people here tolerate my sense of humor. Your comment makes it all worth while. What I hope is that after the 2012 elections, that we have other cultural things to discuss, particularly music and literature (with the exception of Greek Playwrights). Maybe I am an optimist. But here, at Motley Moose, I think I have like minded bloggers who will tolerate what I write.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!
[ Parent ]
Ha! (2.00 / 7)
Our fellow Moosery tolerate my occasional content-free pony-porn picture diaries, so you're home free.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
As I Commented to Jerome... (2.00 / 7)
At the time the 2008 Obama campaign "tunnelled through" the wannabe gatekeepers and established their own web presence with a lot more forethought, purpose and success.  He didn't like that.
[ Parent ]
Which Begs the Question... (2.00 / 9)
Whither goes OFA after Obama finishes his second term.  I don't know what the legalities are but it seems to me his campaign has created a potentially core player in future Democratic politics.  Anyone have an informed opinion about that?
[ Parent ]
As a follow-up, I would like to see (2.00 / 6)
them profile the star commentarati, say 5 years from now. You know the ones I'm talkin' about, particularly on GOS. I think some of them had delusions of becoming political players, their fierce talents at last recognized, instead of the mundane lives they were now leading.

I predict many of them will still be leading their mundane lives, muttering 'I coulda' been a contender!'.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Quick Whip 'Round (2.00 / 8)
Obama leads in latest Ohio poll, "Romney momentum" narrative use-by date expires and most polling in swing states remains consistent with Obama retaining a daunting EV advantage as things now stand.  Early voting giving heartburn to Republicans.

This is close, folks, but very, very doable.

Have you seen the butthurt Politico and Weigel are having over (2.00 / 7)
an article written by Alec MacGillis?  

This started it:  http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/...

Interesting that the Romney momentum stories appear to have died out (as has the bounce).  And with the ground game going gangbusters I'm feeling better about November 6th.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Serves Them Right (2.00 / 5)
And that fifth-columnist Sullivan.  What a quisling.
[ Parent ]
Not a fifth-columnist at all (2.00 / 6)
That would at least suggest critical and strategic argument.  No, I'm afraid Andy's doing his darnedist to act out the worst caricature of the histrionic-hissy-fit-prone gay man.  It's sort of like if I started raving over a pound of someone's flesh and whispering about inciting global conflict for profit...or simply started whining like Seinfeld or Woody Allen.

Follow my jedi hand and repeat after me: "This is not the representative of gay culture you are looking for...this is not the representative of gay culture you are looking for..."

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
It Was a Pun (2.00 / 6)
And I'm mad at hell at him because he's piggy-backed off the Obama phenomenon for years and the one time he's really needed and potentially useful he curls up in a ball.  Sheesh.  It's all clicks and page-views I tell you and I'm sick of it.
[ Parent ]
also up by 4-5 (2.00 / 7)
In Virginia and Pensylvania in the most recent polls. Feeling pretty good here.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)
[ Parent ]
i still feel 347 good all over (2.00 / 6)
...call me ishmael crazy, but...

i think the ground game is going to turnout like a mutha.  ofa hasn't been sitting on it's hands since 08 (and it was unprecedented even then).  despite the gop's suppression effortsmany of those scuds were swatted down, and dem registrations are up.  the demographics are even moar favorable.  O is outperforming 08 in many cases already.  he's crushing in early vote.  women, who vote more reliably than just about everyone, are flocking to democrats.

my deep and sexy hopemonger voice sings, we're a'sweepin' the swings

aside: there's lots of talk now about the storm sandy and her impact on the vote.  i've been up-to-the-brow busy, but most worry is directed at early vote?  is is possible that the drag out on this storm will impact the whiter-shade-of-fail rascal scooter crowd (read: romney voters) worse?

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 

[ Parent ]
A great article regarding ground game. (2.00 / 5)
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

But the difference isn't just quantitative, it's qualitative. I visited Obama and Romney field offices in three swing states -- Ohio, Colorado and Virginia -- dropping in unannounced at random times to see what I could see. There were some consistent, and telling, differences.

Obama's office suite in Sterling was in an office park next to a dentist's office. The front window was plastered with Obama-Biden signs, the door was propped open, and the stink bugs that plague Virginia in the fall crawled over stacks of literature -- fliers for Senate candidate Tim Kaine, Obama bumper stickers -- piled on a table near the front reception desk. In rooms in front and back, volunteers made calls on cell phones, while in the interior, field staffers hunched over computers. One wall was covered with a sheet of paper where people had scrawled responses to the prompt, "I Support the President Because...", while another wall held a precinct-by-precinct list of neighborhood team leaders' email addresses.

Only about a mile down the road was the Republican office, a cavernous, unfinished space on the back side of a strip mall next to a Sleepy's mattress outlet. On one side of the room, under a Gadsden flag ("Don't tread on me") and a poster of Sarah Palin on a horse, two long tables of land-line telephones were arrayed. Most of the signs, literature, and buttons on display were for the local Republican congressman, Frank Wolf. A volunteer in a Wolf for Congress T-shirt was directing traffic, sort of -- no one really seemed to be in charge and there were no paid staff present, though there were several elderly volunteers wandering in and out. The man in the T-shirt allowed me to survey the room but not walk around, and was unable to refer me to anyone from the Romney campaign or coordinated party effort.



Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)
[ Parent ]
yeah, saw that (2.00 / 4)
and warm fuzzies ensued.  also, i've gotten a peek under the hood of the operation in NV.  impressed, I am.  the difference between now and 08 is palpable.  the 'dems have enthusiasm problem' chuck todds of the world aren't seeing what i am: moar peeps/moar harder.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 
[ Parent ]
And because my lady parts aren't pissed off enough today ... (2.00 / 10)
While the campaigns eagerly pursue female voters, there's something that may raise the chances for both presidential candidates that's totally out of their control: women's ovulation cycles.

You read that right. New research suggests that hormones may influence female voting choices differently, depending on whether a woman is single or in a committed relationship.

Please continue reading with caution. Although the study will be published in the peer-reviewed journal Psychological Science, several political scientists who read the study have expressed skepticism about its conclusions. http://thechart.blogs.cnn.com/...  

I'm not particularly hormonal today (I don't think) but "fuck off, CNN" makes me feel better.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

They took it down (2.00 / 6)
but I can't believe they ever put it up in the first place. Galling.

But these are the same people who think its unfair to call out Todd Akin, so.

[ Parent ]
Was just coming to post that. (2.00 / 6)
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpa...

Apparently getting your ass handed to you = "did not meet editorial standards of CNN."

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
They took down Happy's lady parts?! (2.00 / 9)
Shit just got real.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!
[ Parent ]
Heh - Mother Nature is doing that as we speak. (2.00 / 6)
Praise the Lord.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Yeh, it's a relief (2.00 / 6)
But I have to warn you, if your experience is like mine and some of my friends', even after the era of raging hot flash waves has passed, you'll never go back entirely to equilibrium.  It's been a good (mostly very good) decade since I went through the change, and to this day my internal thermometer zigs and zags, just not as often or as wildly.  Maybe if I'd gone on hormones it would be different, but I went through it cold (yeh, as if) turkey -- a smart decision in hindsight, no?

Invest in layers.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
Not to get too deep in the woods as it were but (2.00 / 6)
a couple of hot flashes and a recent bout of raging bad-moodiness have been about it apart from some "schedule" changes.  Fingers crossed that that's all I get for the duration.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Here's hoping! (2.00 / 6)
Could've been a lot worse for me, but annoying enough while it lasted.  Maybe you'll be lucky and minimally slide through the whole thing.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
As Josh Marshall Noted... (2.00 / 7)
Hmmm:


A man suspected of involvement in an attack on the US consulate in the Libyan city of Benghazi last month has been killed in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, officials say.

The man was killed after an exchange of fire with security services in the Cairo suburb of Madinet Nasr.

Authorities named the man only as Hazem.

Jon Leyne - 'Benghazi attack suspect' dies in Cairo shootout BBC 24 Oct 12

This could be interesting.

Am I the only one who finds that waaaaay too convenient? (2.00 / 5)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
I've Been Wondering... (2.00 / 7)
Since late September how long it was going to take.  Both Libya and Egypt, which is fighting a full scale counterinsurgency in Sinai, have direct political interest in pursuing this matter.  It is only a matter of time, really.

There is more to this story, it is about how al-Qaeda has changed; with a broader geographical range but reduced capability.  It requires a recalibration of effort as we saw recently in Somalia with neighbouring national governments in coalition for specific operations.  We will see more of this in Mali soon, hopefully.

America is safer; but that just makes our outposts the only credible targets.  We have reduced al-Qaeda to the tactics of the 90s; this is what progress looks like.

[ Parent ]
We have a rockstar in our midst! (2.00 / 9)
Democrats have been worked into the most fervor over claims that Republicans will employ widespread voter suppression at the polls on Nov. 6.

"The Republican Party in its current configuration is openly defying and attempting to destroy the U.S. Constitution," wrote Denise Oliver Velez on the liberal blog Daily Kos.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Well done Denise even if it is Politico.  :)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

POTUS is on a roll ... (2.00 / 6)
From the latest Rolling Stone interview via TPM:

Have you ever read Ayn Rand?  Sure.

What do you think Paul Ryan's obsession with her work would mean if he were vice president?  Well, you'd have to ask Paul Ryan what that means to him. Ayn Rand is one of those things that a lot of us, when we were 17 or 18 and feeling misunderstood, we'd pick up. Then, as we get older, we realize that a world in which we're only thinking about ourselves and not thinking about anybody else, in which we're considering the entire project of developing ourselves as more important than our relationships to other people and making sure that everybody else has opportunity - that that's a pretty narrow vision. It's not one that, I think, describes what's best in America. Unfortunately, it does seem as if sometimes that vision of a "you're on your own" society has consumed a big chunk of the Republican Party.



"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

From WaPo's Endorsement of Obama for another term (2.00 / 7)
... Would "moderate Mitt" occupy the White House?

The sad answer is there is no way to know what Mr. Romney really believes. His unguarded expression of contempt for 47 percent of the population seems as sincere as anything else we've heard, but that's only conjecture. At times he has advocated a muscular, John McCain-style foreign policy, but in the final presidential debate he positioned himself as a dove. Before he passionately supported a fetus's right to life, he supported a woman's right to abortion. His swings have been dramatic on gay rights, gun rights, health care, climate change and immigration. His ugly embrace of "self-deportation" during the Republican primary campaign, and his demolition of a primary opponent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, for having left open a door of opportunity for illegal-immigrant children, bespeaks a willingness to say just about anything to win. Every politician changes his mind sometimes; you'd worry if not. But rarely has a politician gotten so far with only one evident immutable belief: his conviction in his own fitness for higher office. http://www.washingtonpost.com/...  



"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
I've Noticed... (2.00 / 7)
That the major media endorsements just don't seem to be getting much traction this cycle.  Our politics has moved into the Buzzfeed/CNN stage where thoughtful analysis just gets blown off in the latest stampede of superficial reporting.  Win or lose this bodes ill for our political future; maybe the Twitter model is antithetical to sober democracy.

In other news, the battleground bastion seems to be holding and Nate finally hosed down the "momentum" pseudo-narrative.  Chris Cillizza, by the way, is a hack.

[ Parent ]
I've read that an increasing number of papers aren't endorsing (2.00 / 5)
any more.  Probably can't figure out what the point is.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Access to politicians if their endorsed candidate loses (2.00 / 7)
I work at one. That's what it is.  
[ Parent ]
Meant to add (2.00 / 7)
as someone mentioned on Twitter with regard to Romney: if you are talking about your momentum you probably don't have any.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette
[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 5)
Another day of pressure on the national polling averages from Romney, with a razor-thin or no lead for Obama depending on which aggregation you prefer.  Yet the battleground bastion, especially Ohio, seems firm.  We may yet be headed for a split popular vote vs electoral college outcome.  Any win is a good win but I would love to see the top line headed our way a bit in the next ten days.

What a nail-biter this turned into!

Excellent Summary... (2.00 / 5)
From Ezra Klein here with lots of links if you are interested.  He makes the point that the models all favour Obama but the not so good top line has been almost static for about a week.  This is driving me crazy.  If I were Stateside I would hop in a car and go door-knocking somewhere.
[ Parent ]
I'm voting Sun. night here in J'lem (2.00 / 6)
Then I'll decide whether to volunteer for the Labor Party or for Meretz.  Probably the former, even though the latter is closer to my politics (closest might be Balad actually).  But at this point, we need to stabilize a center-left counterweight to the new Likud Beiteinu party.  Yep, that's right.  Anyone who thought 3 years ago that Bibi was moving to the center and embracing a two state solution needs to eat several platters of crow.  He's just mergedhis party with Avigdor Lieberman's unabashed ethnocratic apartheid party, which demands loyalty oaths from non-Jewish citizens.

The problem on the center-left is what it has always been.  Everyone feels entitled to be Prime Minister (Yacimovich, Barak, Livni, Lapid, Olmert, Mofaz, Peretz, Herzog...all of them).  They care more about their own egos than they do about solving problems.  It might be a very wide spread problem in democratic/parliamentary politics.  But it's particularly acute here.

So my door knocking will have more of an institutional than personal focus.  And the personalities will tear up anything that it accomplishes.

I really need an Obama victory at this point...

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
Don't We All... (2.00 / 6)
And I'm speaking as an Australian in this instance.
[ Parent ]
Is It Fair to Assume... (2.00 / 5)
However that Bibi's merger with Lieberman is a defensive move?  That's how it seemed to me.
[ Parent ]
Yes, but a potentially successful one (2.00 / 7)
Aryeh Deri has returned to Shas, the Sephardi ultra-orthodox party, after 13 years.  He spent time in prison in the interim for taking bribes.  Bibi sensed he might lose some support both because folks who left Shas when Deri wasn't allowed back in went to Likud and now are likely to return, and because Deri has good relationships with several figures on the center-left, as opposed to the more hawkish Eli Yishai who has been running Shas (though its real authority figure is Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef).  Lieberman has a secularist agenda and Bibi likely acceded to conditions there that will make it easier to consolidate the nationalist right but harder to partner with the ultra-orthodox parties.  (Does this read as arcane as it writes?)  So, he likely made a calculation that this would preempt some bleeding and allow him to fear monger about Iran and pull in some from the center as well.

The future is unwritten
[ Parent ]
And then there's this... (2.00 / 5)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/busi...

The future is unwritten
Kenyan plot. (2.00 / 5)
[ENDTRANS]

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon
[ Parent ]
Keynesian Plot? (2.00 / 4)
Two billion dollars of campaign spending?
[ Parent ]
Good news (2.00 / 5)
But too late to matter?

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
Not really. (2.00 / 5)
If the economy is everything, then good news up to the last day of voting is good for the president.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon
[ Parent ]
Nah (2.00 / 5)
I honestly don't think the economy ever mattered. People who hate Obama wouldn't believe the economy was getting better anyway. They're proven to be completely delusional.

It probably will prevent any bleeding from Obama's support though.

[ Parent ]
The GOP congress has done everything in its power to slow the recovery, (2.00 / 6)
and that never makes the news. Why would those following that herd notice if things are getting better? All I hear from that direction is that things could have gotten better faster, which is one of those inarguably nebulous statements.

Europe is still an economic sinkhole and China is still (largely) following a path that consistent for more than 25 years, most of which have seen GOP presidents. A radical president (right or left) during the last four years could have seen a dramatically worse economic result (vastly likely) or a marginally better one (vastly unlikely).

I agree that the economy is much more a vehicle for existing desire than an actual dividing issue. Those who want to find a reason to despise Obama out loud have found one.

But there is a dangerous line for the GOP in this, as well. With a few swing states deciding everything and the small number of undecided voters left being more and more likely by the day to be thoughtful rather than shallow, the details of the arguments become increasingly important. The GOP remains without details at all beyond vapid talking points - "12 million jobs in four years (somehow)", "deficit gone in four years (somehow)" - and that's some damn weak tea.

An object at rest tends to stay at rest. Remaining swing voters are not ODS sufferers (those folks are long decided) and are more likely to vote for stability unless given specifics.

[more importantly, though: "What does 'DTOzone' mean?" ;~]

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Here's the thing (2.00 / 4)
we're a country that is gullible to bullshit. Just look at the way products are marketed- miracle diet pills, etc. infomercials where celebrities come on and endorse a product in the most unconvincing ways, and it works. If it didn't, they wouldn't do it.

What Romney is selling may seem like weak tea or nonsense, but so does Stackard 2, the world's strongest fat burner and Raspberry Ketone and yet they sell millions.

You dangle a promise of 12 million jobs and eliminating the deficit, you don't need to explain how it works, just like you don't need details on how this miracle drug will make you thin- just put a gorgeous man on the TV in a lab coat and call him an expert.

Romney is the perfect candidate, the perfect marketing ploy. That's why he's winning.  

[ Parent ]
The error of your ways, (2.00 / 2)
and of those who seek to exploit the truth within them, is to believe that what you see is all you get.

Sure, we are a country where one can feel free to express your inner n00b. Buy the fad diet, let us know how that works for you. Buy into the fad ideology, your failure will feed the future conversation.

But there is more to us than that. Even those of us who fall down those paths often fall back up them later on. That's kinda the gestalt purpose and strength of our less than glamorous ways.

The 'undecideds' that Strum and I have been wrestling over are either proof of your point or of mine. I continue to contend that they are a pool that increases in concentration as it shrinks, and what is dissolved in there Precious Bodily Fluids is not Crystalline Gullibility but rather Elemental BS Filter Material.

More and more, those less and less require increasing convincing to buy a meme. The GOP lack of substance may work on the large group of inattentive unsatisfieds that are already in their camp, but is even less likely to work on folks who are trying harder to figure out how one actually does lose that unflattering waistline.  

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Totally Agree (2.00 / 2)
Plus the distorting lens of the infamous media.  Except the "winning" part.  Not this time, oh Lord.
[ Parent ]
Oh (2.00 / 3)
DTO- initials

zone- well, "in my zone"

[ Parent ]
Aha! (2.00 / 2)
David Thoreau Ostenwieser!

Knew it was you, all along.

;~)

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Interesting title of this post at DailyKos. (2.00 / 5)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen
You heard it here first. (2.00 / 4)
The value of an appropriately small forum really is interesting. Most of the active folks here read and speak elsewhere. Is there a Green Room aspect to the Moose?

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon
[ Parent ]
Powerful stuff (2.00 / 4)
John Scalzi weighs in on rape and the GOP, and it's not easy reading:

http://whatever.scalzi.com/201...

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

Anyone interested in the Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu merger (2.00 / 4)
and what the ascension of Avigdor Lieberman to a likely position of second most powerful politician in Israel means, well Peter Beinart really lays it out right here:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/a...

The future is unwritten

/butthurt (2.00 / 8)
i can't vote for potus.  obamacare was a big shit sandwich delivered piping hot to my pony saddle under the bus!!1!  he didn't even fight for the public option!!1!!

oh wait, maybe this is socialist enuff:

The Obama administration will soon take on a new role as the sponsor of at least two nationwide health insurance plans to be operated under contract with the federal government and offered to consumers in every state.

[snip]

The national plans will compete directly with other private insurers and may have some significant advantages, including a federal seal of approval. Premiums and benefits for the multistate insurance plans will be negotiated by the United States Office of Personnel Management, the agency that arranges health benefits for federal employees.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10...

ok, but drones!!1!


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 

Your Channelling... (2.00 / 4)
Matt Stoller.  Sheesh.
[ Parent ]
Moron (2.00 / 4)
Systems that can't go on, don't. The political elites, as much as they kick the can down the road, know this. The question we need to ask ourselves is, do we?

Yes, because whenever a system collapses, its always replaced by something better. It's not like fascist dictatorships ever come out of that scenario.

What an idiot.  

[ Parent ]
Hey Matt, (2.00 / 5)
All can ask is

For those who don't know me, here is a brief, relevant background:  I have a long history blah blah several Democratic candidates and affiliated , yadda yadda personally raised millions of wank wank early advisor to Actblue ... Congress ... producer at MSNBC. Furthermore, I aggressively opposed Nader-style challenges until Do you know who I am???.

what about those of us who don't care to know you?

Just being a bit mellow after watching the Giants go 3-0 over the Tigers I can afford a moment to even read that screed.

Yawn. Boring. Another self-righteous Boomer telling us stupid kids how to behave.

Get off my lawn!

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
All of the GOP football spiking and victory lapping (2.00 / 8)
is just weird.  Do these people really think they can depress Obama's turnout by performing premature post-mortems, as if Romney were up ten points and holding 400 electoral votes already in his pocket?  Isn't the curtain measuring going to turn anyone off?  

I really hope someone makes Newt "I'm going to be the nominee" Gingrich and Jennifer "Mitt is Reagan and more" Rubin and all of the rest of them eat some public crow if they are proven wrong.

I'm waiting for one of them to declare that Mitt will win Massachusetts and California at this point.  It's obnoxious.

The future is unwritten

Whazzername got her minute of fame in all of it. (2.00 / 5)
Manhands. Long blond hair. 'Ayn Colter' or something like that.

"Retard should be a good word", "the thought police are after my kidneys", "Mitt is going to SuperFix healthcare by removing all rules" and so on.

Anyone else needing a career bump should I guess just say something ridiculous in public at this point...

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
The narrative today (2.00 / 4)
appears to be "map moving in Mitt's direction and he'll be ahead by next week."

I think part of it is trying to depress Obama turnout, part of it is general desire among MSM to see Romney upset.

[ Parent ]
You know better than most, (2.00 / 6)
what a quagmire the media has become.

After Nov 6, particularly if Obama wins, their ratings drop back into the toilet that is their Daily Bread under normal circumstances.

I feel for them, as individuals. Job insecurity is stressful and damaging. Studying journalism all those years, compromising principles like a butcher at a bake sale just to keep an unpredictable paycheck coming in - it has to suck seven shades of wind.

We have Direct TV now, being outside the reach of The Cable. Seventeen channels of content are intricately woven into 9,573 channels of New Chainsaws and 24-Ladders-in-One! in a desparate attempt to lure revenue from the pockets of viewers and advertisers. "The Media" has become a square mile of rats in a square foot of deep water, each scrambling to be the one that sits on top of the floating corpses of its peers.

I remain as interested in seeing what comes after it as I am uninterested in seeing it now.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Sometimes, I just have to call attention to some of the wonderful writing around here (2.00 / 5)
This...

We have Direct TV now, being outside the reach of The Cable. Seventeen channels of content are intricately woven into 9,573 channels of New Chainsaws and 24-Ladders-in-One! in a desparate attempt to lure revenue from the pockets of viewers and advertisers. "The Media" has become a square mile of rats in a square foot of deep water, each scrambling to be the one that sits on top of the floating corpses of its peers.

I remain as interested in seeing what comes after it as I am uninterested in seeing it now.

...is gorgeous.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
He Had Me... (2.00 / 4)
At "...butcher at a bake sale..."
[ Parent ]
You guys. (2.00 / 4)
Aw, shucks.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon
[ Parent ]
We ditched direct a couple of years after ditching cable (2.00 / 4)
We now watch media strictly from internet (and some redbox)  It is very liberating to not be hooked into a schedule.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)
[ Parent ]
Go Giants! (2.00 / 2)
SahWeep!

:~)

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

All hail the mighty mighty Giants (2.00 / 3)
and be very kind to John when he re-emerges.

The future is unwritten
[ Parent ]
The Only Thing... (2.00 / 2)
Which concerns me about the progressive blogosphere is the recurring sports themes; they abound everywhere.  What's with that?  I must be wired differently, I just don't get it.  Could someone explain to me what the fun part is?  I would so much rather curl up with a good book.  I find it all a bit tribal and garish.
[ Parent ]
It's the garish tribalism n/t (2.00 / 4)


The future is unwritten
[ Parent ]
You're Mocking Me (2.00 / 4)
But I suspect that it is something like that.
[ Parent ]
Nope. (2.00 / 4)
I actually appreciate the opportunity to engage in garish tribalism without bloodshed.

Truth be told, for me it's restricted to baseball.  And beyond the aesthetics of the game, I love the unfolding narrative.  Every game is a chapter and every season a section in a continuous trans-generational epic novel.  There's physical action, psychological depth, characterization, triumphs, stumbles, tragedies, and redemptions.  And its something that allows me to engage socially with a broad swath of people, many of whom are quite different from me and otherwise we'd never engage.

Also, it's a NY thing.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
Have we yet discussed the House of David? (2.00 / 2)
If we haven't, you'll find this interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 

[ Parent ]
The Sturm graphic novel is amazing! n/t (2.00 / 2)


The future is unwritten
[ Parent ]
right?!? (2.00 / 2)
Photobucket

James Sturm pens this richly evocative graphic novel set in the 1920s. The Stars of David, a barnstorming Jewish baseball team, travel from town to town earning a living by playing local squads. They all sport beards, a gimmick to attract patrons but when financial difficulties threaten to end their season they cast their lot with a Chicago promoter who has just seen the hugely successful German silent film Der Golem... With the golem, a baseball game is transformed into a mythical pageant. Fear and curiosity fills the stadium, but it also stokes the flames of anti-Semitism. Winning the game for the Stars of David becomes less important then surviving it. With a sepia-tinted cinematic style, this compelling book reminds us that making it home is at the heart of baseball.

2001 "Best Graphic Novel"--Time

"This book is a home run in any language."--Observer on Sunday

"Employing thick lines, minimal detail and simple prose storytelling, sturm gracefully summons the seedy, often dangerous baseball world of the 1920s...this would make a fine gift for any fan of the game."--Washington Post Book World

http://www.drawnandquarterly.c...

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 

[ Parent ]
Heh (2.00 / 3)
I was born on 59th street.
[ Parent ]
huh (2.00 / 6)
BarackObama Oct 28, 4:30pm via Web

If you're on the Eastern seaboard, please make sure to follow the instructions of your state and local officials today. Stay safe. -bo
Retweeted by MichelleObama

"-bo" means POTUS wrote this himself.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

wingnuts accuse dog in 5..4..3..2.. (2.00 / 6)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 
[ Parent ]
From CNN (2.00 / 3)
In comments on the Political Ticker story about Romney involving himself in a FEMA teleconference briefing (and just what the hell does he have to contribute anyway?  Why the hell is he taking valuable time of overwhelmed governors by calling them?  Shut up and get outta the way of people with jobs to do, asshole!), this helpful metric:

E. Johnson

I've finally figured out the key to understanding Romney's positions. First, you have to find out what he said during the primaries and assign that a factor of 2. Then take what he said at the end of each ensuing month and give them each a factor of a number larger than that of the preceding month but one that does not exceed 5. Now take what he said in each of the debates and give each a factor of 1 or 3 depending on how convincing he was. Now it gets complicated. Take all the factors and total them and divide by a factor between 7 and 11 but not 9. If you had done all these steps correctly, you should have arrived at the conclusion that Romney is an unpredictable pathological liar.



If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
It seems like there could be signs of desperation from Romney (2.00 / 4)
This whole "disaster relief" nonsense, the blatant lying in Ohio, and the so-called efforts to "expand the map" by going up in Michigan and Pennsylvania - it's of course impossible to say, but these do not seem like the actions of a campaign that thinks it is on track to win the election.
The Thing Is... (2.00 / 4)
Taking swing state polling at face value, it is up to Romney to move things a point or two.  Sandy is shaping up to be a wash, speaking strictly about politics; perhaps slightly in Obama's favour all things considered.  I can't remember an election being this static at this stage in the race.
[ Parent ]
I guess it is odd that way (2.00 / 4)
2004 was very stable after the swiftboating, if memory serves.  Romney really is starting to look like the mirror universe Kerry at this point.  I do love the apparent desperation.  
[ Parent ]
Didja catch Chris Chritie giving Obama a tongue bath? (2.00 / 3)
ALL.  DAY.  LONG.

lol

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 

[ Parent ]
I momentarily respected him for that (2.00 / 4)
Christie seems like a smart guy - to the extent that he plays dumb, he does it to earn points with his base.  I think he sees that Romney's about to lose and is preparing for 2016 (watch and see whether he loses a significant amount of weight in the next few years).
[ Parent ]
he's been preparing for 16 all along, I'd wager (2.00 / 3)
His "Christie is teh Awesome, P.S. Romney's around here somwheres" convention speech was clear evidence of that.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 
[ Parent ]
Well (2.00 / 4)
he also slipped in a crack about Obama helping him get around the usual "FEMA mumbo-jumbo" and called out anyone "who thinks I give a damn about presidential politics doesn't know me very well."

Even as the federal government is doing everything it can to help the people of his state, he gets in a crack that reinforces the cliche that the all federal agencies are bumbling bureaucracies.  And it's all always about him.  How he's the consummate anti-politician politician, because he knows that people hate political politicians and thus it's politic to be anti-political.

But if it gives the right wing noise machine an upset tummy on the even of the election, I'm all for it.

If Obama wins (and I think his chances are excellent) I'll be looking for statements from Rubin, Will, Morris, Rove, Krauthammer, Scott Rasmussen, and everyone else who blustered about how Obama can't win and Romney is poised for a landslide and they know what the "American people" want and think and love...

There's gonna be a reckoning after this election.  There's never been this much data and flack circulated so wildly.  Those who made unequivocal pronouncements that were proven false should be made to respond.  And they should lose the right to tell the American people what the American people think.  For good.  Speak for yourselves, jackasses.  

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
It Beats Me... (1.67 / 3)
The fawning over Christie just because he wants to put a torpedo below Romney's waterline.  It's all calculated.  Good on him for doing his job.  Sheesh.

And as for the Republicans, these people are never going to give up.  It's like having shingles.

[ Parent ]
Meh. (2.00 / 3)
The man was doing his job. He was tired as hell, and he spoke the truth. Assuming that he was planning his political directions is cynical to the extreme normally found on Hannity.

Speaking of Hannity, I tuned in for ninety seconds to his radio show last night. Given that much time he managed to accuse the President of using the hurricane as part of his plan to bankrupt the country and declare a permanent dictatorship.

Let's not sink to the level of the insanitocracy. Christie did his job well and he gave credit where credit was due.

Back atcha, big guy.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Uh-huh (2.00 / 2)
As I said, "good on him for doing his job."  Christie's had his moments but I stand by my cynicism as to motive.  His convention speech fits the same narrative.
[ Parent ]
Cynicism is a common point to stand by. (2.00 / 3)
I've had a lot of conversations about that recently. It really seems like the new fad.

Except it really isn't. Cynicism has become the cliche group think of the 21st century, and it bores me to tears. If we doubt anyone in general we doubt everything they say without exception. I love you way (way) more than Hannity, but at the risk of sounding (as) offensive (as I am) I think you have both let yourselves fall into the same trap.

Obama and Christie are both humans. Sure, to maintain political positions they both may say things to motivate voters which nobody (including themselves) would be proud of. I doubt Obama deeply appreciates repeating talking points while skipping over real issues on the campaign trail, and while the Christie campaign quotes out there are less an error of omission and more a fault of saying too much crap (think "light switch"), I am willing to bet that in his own den he isn't much more pleased with the necessities of politics.

There are pols who I think are just buttheads. Some who are missing parts of their souls. Some who are outright corrupt. But for the most part I believe that most of them are decent folks just like you and (at some level) even Hannity are. They believe their positions are good and moral, even when they compromise their ideals to achieve ends.

Cynicism is easy. There is an infinite amount of popular support for it, and voicing it is a reliable means to get proofs in reply. Optimism and understanding are harder but have better outcomes. Folks like Buddha and Jesus get lasting cred for taking that path because it is a harder row to hoe, but we all recognize they are right even when we cannot do the same ourselves.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 3)
Interesting post but I disagree.  Watching Christie at the convention I thought, "What-ho, this bears watching.  Make a mental note for further evidence of Christie undermining Romney's candidacy with plausible deniability."  So when it happens my marker gets a tick and I think, "Hmmm...  Maybe something to this."  Given that a Romney win would reap the economic momentum we all seem to think is coming his second term also seems fairly plausible; not good for Christie's ambitions, really.

So me thinking Christie, arguably positioned to attempt to steer the party in new directions when Romney loses, is putting his thumb on the scale is in the Hannity range of conspiratorial claptrap?  I doubt, you decide.

[ Parent ]
The range is perhaps too broad, I am willing to concede. (2.00 / 3)
But the gestalt point is one of my touchstones so I am not going to give it up too easily. Whether you sin to a greater or lesser extent in that area is much less my point than that we as a national, regional and global culture sin massively in the area as a defining characteristic.

I don't think a politician can ever get far from this and other threads. I know for my own part that the goals - long and shorter term - that I am pursuing guide my words even under stress and duress. Given your own depth of observation on these things it would not surprise me at all if you are seeing the color of a thread that is indeed woven into Christie's statements.

But I would suggest that this is neither perhaps as large a thread or at all a bad thing as might otherwise be perceived. Career motivations understood, I still saw in that clip of him barking at FOX someone who really is interested in doing his job - with all the responsibilities anyone other than a psychopath would understand Governor during a disaster bring - and doesn't have the patience for mewling media buttplugs.

Sure, he has enough of a filter to not tell them to go fuck themselves and to factor in his future political aspirations. But of the two I would bet a dollar that the urge to reach through the camera and smack the little shit for asking him to make a comment supporting Romney while he has to deal with parents whose children's bodies are still in the water was greater than his desire to say the right thing to position for a 2016 presidential race.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 3)
I wonder, I really do:


I would bet a dollar that the urge to reach through the camera and smack the little shit for asking him to make a comment supporting Romney while he has to deal with parents whose children's bodies are still in the water was greater than his desire to say the right thing to position for a 2016 presidential race.

When we are spending $2B on a national election it seems that almost every utterance would be likely contrived.  I'm not trying to dehumanise our politicians but at the national level of politics people like Biden seem the exception which proves the rule.  And even then I wouldn't be surprised if Biden had a few "scripted" gaffes.

[ Parent ]
The volume of dollars is arbitrary. (2.00 / 3)
As a forklift driver I asked a bank teller friend if handling all that money didn't blow her mind. Her answer always stuck with me when I was dealing with millions and billions myself.

It's just numbers.

Our study of human sociology and neurology is showing us how intrinsically wired we are to manage our words. Each of us - you, me, Biden, Christie - arrange our behavior to influence others as naturally as we move our hands to catch flying spheres.

Of course politicians think about what they say. But they are aggregate personalities like the rest of us. "Contrived" is a relative term. It isn't whether any word uttered is Honest in a pure sense - there is no pure sense. Honesty is a statistical phenomenon.



"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Gawd I love that clip (2.00 / 3)
The best part is watching Obama's face at that "Oh shit I said that on video didn't I?" moment.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.
[ Parent ]
I never said anything was calcualted (2.00 / 3)
That's not my particular cynical point.  Rather, I think Christie is a narcissist.  That didn't keep him from being effective in this crisis and I don't begrudge him the credit.  But it's all, always about self-performance with him.  "If you think X, you don't know me at all..."  This is a common refrain with him.  It's always about getting Chris Christie right for him with the press.  He's always the issue.  I'm just glad it didn't get in his way this time.  

And I don't doubt that seeing the devastation and the suffering of NJites shook him.  But his statement was focused on himself.  He wasn't significantly different in extremis from what he is when not.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
That may be fair comment. (2.00 / 3)
But he seeks public office, so egocentricity may be too much of a common character trait of that demographic to be particularly noteworthy.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon
[ Parent ]
It's OK... (2.00 / 3)
Chris, you can like Christie if you want; we won't hate on you.
[ Parent ]
And you can disllike him as well, (2.00 / 2)
we won't hold that against you, either. ;~)

He just seems more in the basket of Republicans you'd expect to see around a normal political neighborhood. That doesn't mean you need to like or dislike him at surface value, unlike the more socially extreme that we associate with this whole tea party nonsense and who now dominate the GOP.

Good cop, bad cop.

I like raising animals. Dogs, cats, bunnies, turtles - it's all the same pattern and it is the same with us. Darwin was right.

I think the GOP can be trained to use the newspaper and eventually make it outside like a good boy. I have faith. The only thing I can do in my immeasurably small way is to pat its head when it isn't being a bad little doggie and know that it is capable of eventually learning don't do that.

That's how we vote when there is no election. Politicians ride aggregate waves of thousands or millions of opinions, and inasmuch as we all make tiny ripples we add up somehow to enough to keep thousands of elected officials across the country. They much more ride not just the curve of the market but also the society they attempt to herd. Mooing adds up.

With the shape of righthanded discourse today I'm willing to pat the any of them on the head for just not being a Sean Hannity wannabee.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
I Agree... (2.00 / 2)
Christie would probably be an example of the kind of Republican which would make for a healthier two-party system.  I still think he was giving Romney grief, however.
[ Parent ]
The Romney camp certainly seems to think so (2.00 / 3)
They are even putting it around that he was Romney's 1st choice for VP.  Might even be true.  But they are circulating it to highlight his TREACHERY!!!

The future is unwritten
[ Parent ]
If the Right Decides... (2.00 / 2)
To blame a plausible Romney loss on the hurricane, and therefore Christie, it puts him on the spot; not necessarily bad but definitely a high-wire act.
[ Parent ]
I momentarily respected him for that (2.00 / 2)
Christie seems like a smart guy - to the extent that he plays dumb, he does it to earn points with his base.  I think he sees that Romney's about to lose and is preparing for 2016 (watch and see whether he loses a significant amount of weight in the next few years).
[ Parent ]
Open Thread: Statistical Tie, Advantage Obama | 151 comments
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