GOP Super Tuesday: Open Thread

by: Shaun Appleby

Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 16:16:41 PM EST



The delegate math says that Romney gets a boost today; Santorum failed to qualify for delegates in some districts of Ohio and is not even on the ballot in Virginia.  But lacking the clear wins he desperately needs in Ohio and Tennessee, where polling indicates statistical ties, will Romney see his own shadow and retreat back to more weeks of interminable campaigning?  

Unless Santorum squeaks out wins in both states, probably not:


...once the Death Star got focused, Santorum's numbers began to bleed. Tennessee would appear to be the key. If Santorum holds on there, he can argue plausibly that Romney still cannot close the deal with the voters he needs the most in the fall. A Republican candidate with a demonstrable weakness in the South is every Republican playa's worst nightmare. But this still remains a contest between an actual campaign and three cults of personality. 'Twas ever thus.

Charles P Pierce - How Romneybot 2.0 Built His Super Tuesday Death Star Esquire 6 Mar 12

Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Shaun Appleby :: GOP Super Tuesday: Open Thread
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Horserace Stakes... (2.00 / 3)
Got to agree with Booman on this:


A good night for Romney will be if he can win Ohio, Virginian, Massachusetts, and Vermont. A great night will be if he can also win in Tennessee and come in second behind Gingrich in Georgia. A bad night will be if he comes in third in Georgia and loses in Ohio and Tennessee.

If Romney has a good or great night, we'll probably see the electorate start to rally around him. But if he has a bad night, the contest will continue in its present form, and move to Alabama and Mississippi and Missouri with Romney looking to take a beating.

Booman - What to Look for Tonight Booman Tribune 6 Mar 12

In spite of Romney's recent upward trend I'm kind of hoping Santorum wins both Ohio and Tennessee, but it seems unlikely at this point.


Interestingly Enough... (2.00 / 3)
Gingrich may be in the hunt for Tennessee:


The most surprising finish may be underway in Tennessee, where two automated, recorded voice polls conducted over the weekend both show support for Newt Gingrich climbing rapidly. The two surveys were conducted by WeAsk America, an affiliate of the Illinois Manufacturers Association, and Public Policy Polling (PPP), a company that conducts surveys for local Democratic candidates.

The WeAskAmerica poll showed all three frontrunners separated by a single percentage point, 30 percent for Romney and 29 percent each for Santorum and Gingrich. The PPP poll gave Santorum a slightly larger share of the vote (34 percent), followed by Romney (29 percent) and Gingrich (27 percent). Other Tennessee surveys conducted late last week had Gingrich significantly lower.

Mark Blumenthal - Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum Close In Ohio; Newt Gingrich Leads Georgia Huffington Post 5 Mar 12

Poor Mitt can't seem to get a break sometimes.


[ Parent ]
i'm snowed out of the field today... (2.00 / 3)
back to the hotel to follow returns (and work on a proposal), but all this dive has is Fox News (barf).

what's happening?

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


Heh (2.00 / 2)
Polls close in Vermont in half an hour.  Popcorn time.

[ Parent ]
Georgia... (2.00 / 2)
Already called for Gingrich and Romney in Virginia.

[ Parent ]
Not a shocker of course (2.00 / 2)
but I'll be interested to see who takes second.  Lot o' libertarians in the Northeast Kingdom.

As an aside, one of the ballot questions concerned having Congress focus on the income disparity and the other had to do with supporting a constitutional amendment declaring corporations are not people.

Lastly, after some brief contemplation last night I selected the Democratic presidential ballot on which to cast that vote.  :)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
Ron Paul (2.00 / 1)
At this point with 26% and slightly edging Santorum.

[ Parent ]
In Georgia, However... (2.00 / 2)
Romney is a poor third.  Uh-oh...

[ Parent ]
<3% of the vote in, though. (2.00 / 2)
(I'm getting dizzy going between maps.)  :)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
My Google election map tells me Ohio has been called for (2.00 / 3)
Romney with .6% of the vote counted (happens to be in the area where my nephew and his wife live).

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

Huh? (2.00 / 3)
Politico has it 38.6% Romney to 37.1% Santorum.  That's mighty close.

[ Parent ]
Must be the AP numbers because that's what Google has as (2.00 / 2)
well.  I dunno but Ohio is yellow for Romney.  I have not seen any tweets with it being called, though.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Now Ohio is purple for Santorum. (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
As is Tennessee. (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
My guess is that google is shading the map the color of the current (2.00 / 2)
vote leader.  Very confusing.

(OK has been called for Santorum, though, and MA for Mitt.)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
Looks to Me... (2.00 / 2)
Like Romney is going to take Ohio and lose Tennessee.

[ Parent ]
Interesting to see what Ohio's totals end up being. (2.00 / 2)
Mike DeWine switched from Romney to Santorum.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Nate expects OH to tighten as rural votes come in. (2.00 / 2)
Is Romney winning by a big enough margin in the cities to hold on?

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Just Seeing... (2.00 / 2)
The same thing, Romney has a narrow 1% lead at the moment.

[ Parent ]
How does the Santorum delegate issue in OH work? (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Barring a Legal Challenge... (2.00 / 2)
Santorum isn't eligible for delegates in three or four districts, from memory.

[ Parent ]
Maybe they'll be districts he loses. (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
If Romney... (2.00 / 4)
Places third in both Tennessee and Oklahoma as well as Georgia ya gotta' wonder.  And I'm guessing turnout, when we finally get the figures, will be lowest in states Romney wins.  And Ron Paul gets 40% in Virginia?

He may win the requisite delegates but, sheesh, what a weak showing.


CNN... (2.00 / 3)
Had guess who at the polling in Wassila?

[ Parent ]
Fudge... (2.00 / 3)
Gingrich fading to third in Tennessee and Oklahoma.

[ Parent ]
But Romney... (2.00 / 4)
Still getting clobbered in both.

[ Parent ]
CNN Calls Tennessee... (2.00 / 2)
For Santorum, not even close.

And Watching Newt... (2.00 / 1)
He's giving a valedictory on his campaign, not a victory speech.  Sounds like he's getting ready to bail, frankly.

[ Parent ]
he does sound like he's fixing to bounce out (0.00 / 0)
heavy shots at the gop 'elite'...

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Nostalgia... (2.00 / 1)
Absent momentum.

[ Parent ]
Awww, then he had to go and pick on T-Paw. :( (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Heh... (2.00 / 2)
Santorum creeping up from behind in Ohio, still early there.

[ Parent ]
Sam Seder called the speech a "suicide note." (2.00 / 3)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 1)
After listening along all this time I'm considering it.

[ Parent ]
Newt's still prattling on? (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
CNN... (2.00 / 1)
Couldn't take it any more and cut him off in mid-anecdote.

[ Parent ]
I'm impressed (2.00 / 4)
that you can listen to him.  I can't do it anymore.  I find Rush has more scruples regarding truth-telling.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
All Tied Up... (2.00 / 2)
In Ohio with 7.5% of the vote in.

{{{sigh}}} (2.00 / 3)
Can I shake my head?  Really, Ohio?!  Really?  While part of me wants Santorum to stay in to extend the primary this hurts as Ohio is my home state.  Isn't Ohio State men's basketball being seeded third in the Big Ten (sic) tourney punishment enough?

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Fwiw, Howard Fineman sent a tweet (2.00 / 1)
that said the Romney folks "spinning/conceding they may not be able to get a majority of delegates.  They'll appeal to RNC."

Hmmmmm

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


CNN... (2.00 / 1)
Calling Oklahoma for Santorum, Romney tied at this point with Gingrich for second.

[ Parent ]
Ohio! (2.00 / 2)
With 11.2% of the vote counted Santorum is leading by a whisker.

Santorum... (2.00 / 3)
Opens his lead to about 1%.  Not been watching the counties but seems that Romney isn't particularly strong where he is winning so far.  We'll see.  If Romney loses Ohio tonight is a funeral march to the nomination for him.

[ Parent ]
Uh-oh... (2.00 / 2)
Santorum 38.4% to Romney 36.6% with 23% precincts in.  Ho-boy.  Romney must be pooping himself.

[ Parent ]
I was trying to compare %s to vote totals in. (2.00 / 2)
Yes, I confused myself but it seems overall that Romney's leads aren't as big as Santorum's.  But total votes in by county is all over the place, of course.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Looks like Romney takes the urban districts and Santorum everything else (2.00 / 3)
And the uncalled counties are all rural.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
Santorum... (2.00 / 1)
Now leading by 2.5%.

[ Parent ]
+3% now (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
But His Speech... (2.00 / 1)
Sounds like a testimonial at a cranky PTA meeting.

[ Parent ]
Guernsey County just barely flipped to Romney with 57% in. (2.00 / 1)
But Hamilton Cty (Cincinnati) has been stuck at .2% in for forever.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 1)
I'm seeing plenty of Romney territory still outstanding.

[ Parent ]
Which is why the Romney campaign says they aren't worried (2.00 / 1)
although you have to know they are at least a bit.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Although Franklin County (with 14%) in is tighter than I would (2.00 / 2)
have thought with 1/1% difference.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Agreed (2.00 / 1)
It's not just the locality but the margins.  Santorum is overperforming the polls in Ohio, at least, which puts Romney in the danger zone.

[ Parent ]
Cuyahoga and Hamilton counties (2.00 / 2)
should be Romney territory and they both have a hell of a lot of people. There will be a lot of Santorum spread all over the map tonight, but I think it's probably likely the Mittster will pull it out in the end.

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
It Will Be Mighty Close... (2.00 / 1)
Also Lucas and Montgomery counties as well with high margins for Romney and low returns.  We'll see.  Romney needs to find about 16,000 votes somewhere and that might do it.

[ Parent ]
Down to <2% if I can subtract (2.00 / 1)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Don't trust those % reported numbers (2.00 / 3)
I was curious so I totaled the reported vote totals for Hamilton and Franklin (Columbus) counties and multiplied them by the reported % of counted votes to see how many total votes were projected for each county. Franklin county showed 19% reporting which projected to a total vote count of 200,000. Hamilton county was at 6% and projected out to 121,000 total votes. Doing the same with the current numbers shows Franklin county with 110,000 projected and Hamilton with ~70,000.  

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
Not so sure Lucas county will go for Romney. (2.00 / 2)
That's UAW territory.  

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
Closing Up Now... (2.00 / 2)
And Hamilton still not coming in.  Ouchies.

[ Parent ]
Nate seems to think Santorum will hang on. (2.00 / 3)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
What he says ... (2.00 / 4)
If you weight the 2012 margins between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Mr. Santorum's margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
Hamilton County has started reporting again. (2.00 / 3)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Hmmm... (2.00 / 1)
It's not going to be enough, soooo close.

[ Parent ]
The other thing is, and I'll have to look up the delegate (2.00 / 2)
proportions again, the whole state doesn't matter if delegates aren't winner take all and since neither is going to get over 50% I assume they will be split.  Interesting to see how that works.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
John King... (2.00 / 4)
Just went through the CDs where Santorum failed to file properly and it looks like he will lose some that he would have otherwise claimed.  But frankly, at this point, I can't see Romney losing the delegate race overall; it is the perception of his candidacy as inherently flawed which is being fought for now, it seems.  Can you see Santorum winning California or New York?  Or Illinois?

[ Parent ]
Nope (2.00 / 2)
but are they winner take all?  Or could he win enough to drag it to the convention?  The other thing that strikes me is that Romney's spending, what, 5:1 over Santorum and can't beat the guy handily.  Dip into the savings, Mitt.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
By CDs They Are... (2.00 / 2)
That's how Ohio rolls which is permitted by GOP rules.  Just to add; John King did the math and this going to be the squeaker we were talking about; too close to call and looking tough for Romney; some rural areas still dribbling in too.

[ Parent ]
Oh, Sorry... (2.00 / 1)
New York and California are winner take all, yes.

[ Parent ]
Yes, yes, no (2.00 / 3)
I can also see him taking a lot of western states, those without large Mormon populations, and most of the south. If Romney loses Ohio tonight his perceived inevitability will be gone. Much like HRC's was in 2008.

I think this race has a lot of similarities to 2008. We're looking at this and thinking the GOP is about to choose a fatally flawed candidate. That's what the other side thought about us in 2008. Dems turned away from the frontrunner to choose a black guy with a funny, Muslim name. Did I mention he was black? It still seems a bit surreal to me.

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.


[ Parent ]
Me Too (2.00 / 1)
And I was an early believer.  Still don't see how Romney loses the delegate advantage.  I can't imagine Santorum winning either coast, myself.  The best he could hope for is denying Romney his 1144.

[ Parent ]
David Frum on Twitter ... (2.00 / 4)
"If Romney loses Ohio, CNN Decision Desk should call the election for Obama right then."

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

Rooting for a Rantorum win then!! (2.00 / 2)


The p***artist formerly known as 'Brit'

[ Parent ]
Popcorn and tweets.... (2.00 / 4)
Just seen Gingrich talking about eviscerating something, and algae. Problem is, he has algae issues too (promoted it in a vid) and eviscerating him would be a herculean labour.

Meanwhile my favourite tweet:

Gewt Ningrich is more fun to say than Ritt Momney or Sick Rantorum


The p***artist formerly known as 'Brit'

OK... (2.00 / 3)
If Romney loses Ohio his inevitable nomination is totally in quicksand; delegates notwithstanding.  And with Alabama and Mississippi coming up he'll be slowly sinking there for a while.  Sheesh, this is turning out to be an interesting night.

Hard to Disagree (2.00 / 3)

So our front runner continues his losing streak of evangelicals, the South, and most conservatives. @EWErickson

But, Massachusetts and Vermont..?  Ha ha ha.  Pity Virginia was a non-event and even there he didn't break 60%.


[ Parent ]
Charles Pierce on Santorum ... (2.00 / 1)
"I'd like to apologize to the world for this cluck."

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

What's crazy is if Newt is truly motivated by animus for Romney (2.00 / 4)
Wouldn't that be served best by him dropping out and endorsing Santorum?  Seems like if that happened, Romney would be over.  No?

It's gotta be his everestian ego.

The future is unwritten


Not Delegate-wise... (2.00 / 3)
Republicans are almost at the point of no return into a deadly embrace with a demonstrable loser.

[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 3)
Maddow just said the same thing.  And she's smarter than both of us combined.

On the other hand, she also said that Newt staying in guarantees that Romney limps in as a historically weak nominee.

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
2008 comes to mind. (2.00 / 5)
Hillary was still considered the frontrunner until Barack's Super Tuesday success. That's when things began to get brutal in the Dem primaries. No matter how Ohio ends up things are going to get really ugly from here on out.

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but (2.00 / 5)
the differences is that the vast majority of Dems were gonna work hard for either.  Perhaps some African-Americans would have been less enthusiastic...unless Clinton had tapped Obama for running mate, which I think was likely.  Clinton and Obama represented different demographics more than different constituencies within the party.  I expected the unification to be more difficult than it was.  But with the Republicans, this is about different wings of their coalition.  I don't think they'll unify quite so easily.  Even their hatred for Obama may not be enough to come together.  And Independents have to be turned off by these primaries.  

I don't think this thing will be easy.  But it's looking a lot better than it did 6 months ago.

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
Superimpose... (2.00 / 3)
The winning Republican electoral vote map over the map of Romney's primary wins and subtract the ones that are blue.  Meh to Romney.

[ Parent ]
Good thinking! n/t (2.00 / 3)


The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
FYI (2.00 / 3)
Marcy Kaptur is up by 10% over Kucinich with 20% in.

Joe the Plumber is down pretty big in his primary.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


Annnnnd Joe came back and WON! (2.00 / 3)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
denny k sent packin' (2.00 / 2)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Romney is a Cheerful Animitron... (2.00 / 2)
He must be counting delegates and ignoring electoral votes.

I think he's from the first generation of Cylon skinjobs. (2.00 / 3)
They're much more convincing now.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
Three of the worst speeches I've ever heard (2.00 / 4)
1. Sleazeball establishment figure promises to clean up the establishment, with a nod to Reagan

2. Pious Pinhead promises more pious pinheadery, with a nod to Reagan

3. Robotic salesman sells robots

Jeez. They all hit on the worst tones of 'Making America Great', mainly by trashing each other and Obama. Oh. And saying if you get healthcare the government is controlling your life forever.

Frankly, I think we all lost our fundamental liberties with the invention of the traffic light.  

The p***artist formerly known as 'Brit'


[ Parent ]
Oh... (2.00 / 4)
And wall-to-wall blatant lies and misrepresentations.

[ Parent ]
for realz (2.00 / 4)
one of many:

Gingrich added a little something to his pitch: a paraphrase of President Obama's answer on gas prices at a Tuesday press conference that was so broad, it became pure fiction.

"I thought today, in one of the most shallow and self-serving comments by a president I've heard in a long time, he was candid in his press conference," Gingrich said. "He said, you know, I'm really worried about higher gas prices because it will make it harder for me to get re-elected. I did not make this up."

Except Gingrich kind of did make it up.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo....

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Romney is .3% behind Gingrich for third in OK. (2.00 / 3)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

And... (2.00 / 3)
Third in North Dakota too.

[ Parent ]
Dan Riehl ... (2.00 / 4)
"If Romney loses Ohio and Tennessee, there's no justification for him being the nominee."

(I believe he has said he will not vote for Romney.  Of course, I once said I wouldn't vote for Hillary in the heat of 2008.)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


This is crazy. (2.00 / 3)
I'm loving it.

CNN trying to make the case for Romney in Ohio.

"Mitt is threading a really thin needle." John King

No shit, John.

So thin Romney can't fit that needle through his ass, that's how thin it is.  

Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen


[ Parent ]
Actually... (2.00 / 4)
The camel through the eye of a needle is not a winning metaphor for Romney.

[ Parent ]
Ohio... (2.00 / 1)
Man this thing is going to be close.  Booyah!

Holy Cow... (2.00 / 1)
Looks like John was right, ROmney just might squeak this one out, he's only behind by .7%, about 6,100 votes.

[ Parent ]
Cuyohoga and Hamilton Counties (2.00 / 1)
Look like taking Romney just over the line; and Medina isn't even counted.  Most of the rural counties have reported, just don't see the numbers outstanding for Santorum.

[ Parent ]
Clermont County... (2.00 / 1)
Like Obi-wan Kanobe, is Santorum's only hope.

[ Parent ]
Is there a recount mechanism? (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Scioto County is still close with only 18% in. (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Looks like Romney will win (2.00 / 3)
by a few thousand when it's all done. Darn.

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
If it is any consolation (2.00 / 4)
POTUS is on track to get more votes in OH than any of the GOPers per the press sec for OFA.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Hamilton County's unoffical results have Romney at 18,000 (2.00 / 2)
and Santorum at 12,000.

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe...

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
Ah shit. There ar provisional ballots to be counted, too. (2.00 / 2)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

Ah, Poop... (2.00 / 1)
Romney by 1,837 votes now with 86% of precincts counted in Ohio.

[ Parent ]
Interesting tidbit (2.00 / 3)
Santorum looks like he got one more delegate out of CO than Romney will get out of OH.  And they each got the same number, nine, when they came in second in those races.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

interesting (2.00 / 5)
fox news (barf) is reporting that in OH, about 12k votes went to rick perry and huntsman (who are still apparently on the ballot).

atm, krauthammer is painting mitt has a weak, weak candidate.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


Yeah, seeing on Twitter that Perry has more than three times the (2.00 / 5)
number of votes that separate Romney and Santorum.  For someone who isn't even runnning.  I guess sending a message is more important.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Turnout in OH is up 10% over 2008. (2.00 / 4)
:)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

Erick Erickson tweets that if Santorum wins OH Romney should (2.00 / 6)
drop out.  hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

CNN are Romney cheerleaders. (2.00 / 5)
A tie (sorry, winning by 2% is not really winning) in Ohio is pathetic.  

Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen

[ Parent ]
Especially all the money he spent. (2.00 / 5)


"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
5:1 Ratio on $ (2.00 / 5)
And virtually tied in votes.

[ Parent ]
On that mandatory recount... (2.00 / 5)
In Ohio, a candidate has to win by more than .25% of the vote to avoid a mandatory recount. In practice that means the victory has to be more than about 2,000 votes. That's just about where Romney is right now.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/a...

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


No clear narrative to set. Interesting. (2.00 / 3)


Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen

[ Parent ]
Holy crap! (2.00 / 4)
Jean Schmidt is down in her primary 49%-43% with 99% in.

Hell, that makes this night worthwhile ... can't see Brad Wenstrup can be much worse.  (fingers crossed)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


David Frum ... (2.00 / 4)
"The great thing about this primary process is the smiling, welcoming image our party is presenting the country"

followed by

"except the sluts of course"

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


Sheesh (2.00 / 3)
Romney won all the counties that Obama did against McCain and Santorum won all the ones McCain did.  Hmmm...  Is that good or bad?

Don't see how it is bad. They both won Ohio. (2.00 / 3)


Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen

[ Parent ]
FYI on OH (2.00 / 3)
Candidate % of Votes Number Of Votes
Obama, Barack (D) 100.00% 489,883

Romney, Mitt (R) 37.86% 409,551
Santorum, Rick (R) 37.20% 402,421

per SoS

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


So... (2.00 / 6)
Romney took in a substantial delegate haul tonight but somehow that doesn't seem to matter.  In 2008 it was considered clever when everyone woke up one day and realised there was no clear path to victory for Hillary; the same is now unfolding for Romney's pack of hounds baying at his heels and yet he is somehow flawed and seemingly unable to close the deal.  What gives?

Gingrich sounds like quitting but with Alabama and Mississippi coming up soon, who knows?  He certainly doesn't like "Wall Street" Willard very much.  Santorum can't believe his luck and is answering the call, his Ohio speech wasn't bad at all, such as it was.  Can't see his "little campaign that could" not huffing and puffing on for a while longer.  And Ron Paul has probably already made bookings at a modest hotel in Tampa.

Like it or not the die is already cast, isn't it?  From a strictly political standpoint it is hard to believe that establishment Republicans will condone another month or more of expensive and destructive campaigning when there is no alternative.  They must really not like Romney, not care about the presidency or be just plain terrified of their own truculent constituencies rising up against them.  What can they say to their long-standing values voter coalition now?

"Well, here's another nice mess you've gotten us into!"


I was thinking about this compared to 2008. (2.00 / 6)
All those who refused to concede that Obama was inevitable when the delegate math made it obvious he was.  Now it seems like the same thing is happening on the Republican side.  I would imagine that if we counted up delegates from the remaining states Romney would look pretty good.  Santorum and/or Gingrich could make things interesting here and there but in the end the math isn't there.  And Santorum is nuts and Gingrich isn't liked.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Exactly (2.00 / 6)
Seems to me the only reason the Republican establishment and talking heads don't declare this for Romney and try to move on is they're afraid of starting a riot.  Serves them right.

[ Parent ]
There's another possible rationale for them not to intervene (2.00 / 7)
though it's not clear to me at all that the powers that be, and rick and Newt as well, are thinking so strategically at this point.  It seems quite likely that a good portion of Rick's and Newt's supporters need to be engaged.  Getting them to come out and participate in primaries and caucuses gets them out of their TV rooms.  Then you have people to whom you can reach out, people already engaged in the process.  This ultimately turned out to be the major benefit of HRC staying in the race.  It helped get Dems engaged and developed networks and infrastructure for the general.  It served to activate and energize and organize.  But the problem is that even as many of us cried foul over the 3AM ad, perhaps a bit histrionically in retrospect, for the most part the competition with Hillary, and the competition between organizations, made Obama a more seasoned and effective and disciplined candidate and his campaign a better coordinated one.  

The actual number of people in Hillary's camp who skuled off to PUMA parties and to hang out on corner's with Alegre was ultimately very very small.  Most ardent Clinton supporters were able to transfer their support and energies without too much difficulty after a surprisingly short period of grief, which I didn't begrudge them in the least.  And I am positive it would have worked similarly in the opposite direction.  Especially if she had put him on the ticket, and again I think that was almost certain for reasons I won't go into here.  Anyway, I know it would have for me - I ridiculed a friend who is a Law Professor here who claimed after Clinton tried to push MI that he wouldn't vote for her.  I looked him straight in the eye and told him I'd have a lawn sign up for her within 24 hours and would put my name on the volunteer rolls with her campaign at the same time.

But the kinds of ideological disavowals that these guys are slinging at each other is only revealing more and more every day to independents what a bunch of fear mongering zealots they are.  And when they speak at the convention in Romney's favor, it will hammer home the degree to which they are a bunch of political hypocrite hacks.  Even Rick St. Tedium.  And Romney will be weakened, not strengthened by doing multi-lateral splits among their fracturing coalition.  Their pundits keep pointing toward 2008 to cheer themselves up.  I say, let them live with that anesthesia.  Apples and oranges are both fruits.  But they are still apples and oranges.

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
God's honest truth that i don't get why Gingrich is still in. (2.00 / 4)
Unless it is sheer arrogance and/or animus toward Romney because he sure isn't serving any particular purpose.

The other difference between 2008 and now is that Hillary is the establishment candidate and the one who folks thought (knew) waa done.  This time it is the establishment candidate who truly is the frontrunner in every way but name but who isn't liked by "true" conservatives.  How do you tell the base that your candidate needs to drop out and that you need to suck it up and go with the crappy guy left?  After having put up with McCain who after all chose Palin to appeal to the base.  Which begs the quetion: does Santorum have a chance as a VP candidate?

It is also hard to judge this because we are on the other side.  I can't stand any of the candidates and wouldn't bring myself to vote for any GOPer who would support one.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
He wants to push it to the convention (2.00 / 4)
where all bets will be off.  I think Palin's endorsement last night is significant here.  Why wouldn't she go with Santorum?  Sure, she might be trying to keep a window open for those who would like to draft her.  But I think Newt is hoping to be the great unifier or establishment and tea party wings who pulls everyone together and charges forward as the cheerful warrior, who is better at sneering, fear-mongering, demonizing, posturing, pandering, patronizing, condescending, and flattering than all the rest of them together.

Obama's press conference above is any hint of how he is going to face them, Newt will bottom out with independents.  He seems to have really developed a sharp sense for when and how to simply let an ugly pitch go by with bemusement, and when to take a crack with authority.  He may be a basketball guy primarily, but he showed what we would call in the world of baseball amazing plate discipline yesterday.  Newt doesn't just lack that kind of plate discipline, hacking and hacking and hacking and acting like he's hit home runs when he just struck out, he lacks almost all discipline.  None of them do.  Birth control Rick?  Nascar Mitt?  Little Sarah Sunshine?  No wonder they won't let go of their serial implications that he is less American, or un-American.  They need to cast him as foreign.  Because when he talks about his daughters, shakes hands with workers, lunches with executives, he seems all too authentically American in clearly recognizable ways.  It's basically all they've got.  That and posturing about gas prices.  

Of course, once again, an Israeli strike on Iran or a collapse of the Euro could throw all of this into chaos.  That's why his opponents are all fantasizing about catastrophe in their speeches and seemingly rooting for it as well.

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
Speaking of Palin (2.00 / 2)
Christine O'Donnell tweeted about how Sarah voted for Gingrich and Todd endorsed him but Romney (who I'm-not-a-witch endorsed) won AK.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Gingrich is Dreaming... (2.00 / 2)
World historical fantasies if he thinks he has a shot.  My guess is a vote for Newt was a strategic vote for Palin which leaves her unlikely options open at the convention.  The fact is, none of them have a shot:


Even without these handicaps, Santorum is not on pace to contest the Tampa convention. "No, it isn't mathematically impossible," delegate whiz Josh Putnam wrote Tuesday of Santorum's chance to hit the 1,144 mark necessary to clinch the nomination. "But it would take either Gingrich or Santorum over-performing their established level of support in the contests already in the history books to such an extent that it is all but mathematically impossible."

Adam Sorenson - Mitt Romney Keeps Front-Runner's Pace with Super Tuesday Victories Time 8 Mar 12

Their only hope to derail Romney is to deny him the 1144 delegates he needs prior to the convention.  And even in that scenario the Romney inevitability still weighs heavily given his presumed delegate totals at that point.  It would just make the whole business potentially more unsettled and acrimonious.

No, the Republicans are now chained to the corpse of Mitt Romney for the rest of the campaign.


[ Parent ]
Palin for VP (2.00 / 1)
Is that too obvious? Has it been said yet?

Romney/Palin - the fiscal/social conservative sandwich.

?

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
No way (2.00 / 4)
she goes for VP two cycles in a row.

Besides, if you think Gingrich has a massively distended ego...

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
You are Mitt Romney. (2.00 / 2)
You have the nomination, but you cannot win the election without the base.

...

...

It's OK, I'll wait.

You are healthy as a horse - maintained by a crack team of medical personnel 7x24 - so no worries there.

She's got the money now, but the power is fading.

Fading.

fading

"But wait! Another run as VP and it is Spotlight City all over again! Everyone has to listen to ME! I won't be backseat this time, either, now I know the ropes"

Nah. I'm sure it hasn't crossed anyone's mind that she would bring all of the Values Voters back along with the Security Moms. Probably never even brought up in jest.

These folks hate winning, anyway.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
Um... (2.00 / 2)
Haven't we seen this movie before?

[ Parent ]
I really like that baseball analogy. (2.00 / 6)
It wouldn't hurt all of us to practice some "plate discipline" when it comes to political stories. We don't need to swing at everything the right throws up there. We should wait for that hanging curve-ball or big fat change-up that crosses the plate right in our wheelhouse.  

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.

[ Parent ]
Beats Me Too (2.00 / 3)
And if he really wanted to mess Romney up deferring to Santorum would probably be his preferred option.  Still, if he denies Romney the Southern state delegates and Santorum denies him what he can of the rest it amounts to about the same.  I just wonder who is willing to foot his bills at this point, frankly.

[ Parent ]
Bye Bye (2.00 / 2)
Alabama poll destroys Gingrich's justification:


The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University's Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.

Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.

George Talbot - New poll shows Rick Santorum leading in Alabama GOP primary Mobile Press-Register 7 Mar 12

13.8%?  He's done.  Fuhgettaboudit.


[ Parent ]
Just a Footnote... (2.00 / 4)
On Romney's 2012 weakness:


Here are four numbers: 37%, 45%, 60%, 41%. Here are four more: 24%, 32%, 35%, 17%. Those are the numbers for Rommey, respectively, from the 2008 caucuses in North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, and Minnesota, and from the 2012 caucuses in the same states.

David Weigel - Romney and Galactus: Five Lessons from Super Tuesday Slate 7 Mar 12

How do you explain that to your prospective donors?


Out of curiosity did you happen to notice if the article mentioned (2.00 / 3)
voter turnout?  I could read it myself but I'm lazy and you presumably have already done so.  :)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
No... (2.00 / 3)
But there's a good analysis at Daily Kos:


Now, the 13.43 percent decline in GOP voter participation does include Washington, which skewed the results by converting from a primary in 2008, to a much lower-turnout caucus in 2012. But taking Washington out of the equation, that still leaves Republicans with a 8.93 percent deficit compared to 2008.

Kos - Republican turnout woes intensify Daily Kos 7 Mar 12

There's a nifty chart which is probably what you were after.


[ Parent ]
The Fix is In (2.00 / 5)
From Red State:


Frankly, even if Gingrich exits, Romney will still most likely be the nominee.

He will be the nominee having lost the South, Appalachia, evangelicals, conservatives, and blue collar voters. He will go into the general election deeply distrusted by his own base while having to woo independent voters. This is not a dazzling position to be in to beat an incumbent President.

Were I Mitt Romney I'd be wondering how I spent 5.5 times as much money as Rick Santorum and barely won Ohio. I'd be wondering who on my campaign staff gets fired first. Mitt Romney has been running since 2006, has the best organization, and the most money. He won his home state of Michigan by less than 3%. He won Ohio barely after pouring in money. A win is a win is a win. But with each Romney win, he comes away even more badly bruised.

The rest of March will be just as brutal. What a mess.

Erick Erickson - The Nominee Red State 7 Mar 12

Some other choice quotes from the comments:


Our primaries are the punch line to a very very bad joke. Most insulting of all however the GOP is about to nominate a candidate I truly cannot support. For the first time in my adult life I am no longer a reliably republican voter.


Thank you, Mitt Romney, for ensuring four more years of Barack Obama.


We as a party should focus on our Senate and House seats in jeopardy more intensely now that we know who will get the nomination.


I guess the only thing left to do is to either move to Easter Island or buy a gun, tons of food and wait for the end of America to come about.

Frankly I think they are overstating the problem, Romney is weak, to be sure, but I still think we have a hell of a lot of work to do between now and November.


[ Parent ]
And does anyone think that come November 6th he won't (2.00 / 5)
pull the Romney lever?  Because while it seems Erick's reached the anger stage there's a long time to reach acceptance.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
No Doubt (2.00 / 4)
And will also coach his cohort to do likewise.  But from our point of view I can't think of a preferable opponent than a lacklustre, mainstream establishment yet demoralised candidacy from Romney.  If we were looking for a perfect storm the weather seems promising.

[ Parent ]
Looks Like... (2.00 / 3)
Lots of folks are trying to do the delegate math on the back of their napkins this morning, and it's not easy:


Much of the punditry talks about how impossible it is for the not-Romney's to get to 1,144. And they're pretty much right-Santorum needs 968 of the remaining 1,541 delegates. Gingrich needs 1,039 of them. Paul needs 1,097. Sure, it's mathematically possible for them to get to 1,144, but it just ain't gonna happen.

But what they can do is prevent Romney from getting the delegates he needs, which would then give us that mythical creature called the "brokered convention." But that's just fantasyland. It won't happen.

Kos - The GOP's messed-up delegate race Daily Kos 7 Mar 12

The thing is, the GOP rules and schedule are so screwed up that it is very hazy around the edges; and hard to declare a presumptive winner or identify when the nomination is locked up.  So on it goes with a perplexed Romney wondering just what the heck he has to do to win this thing.

Looks like the Republicans really created a bit of a mess for themselves and little comfort for those seeking an end to this ordeal.


And Ouch... (2.00 / 2)
Also:


The Republican presidential campaign is now a battle between a movement and mathematics. Santorum has the energy and support of the noisy part of the party-the Tea Party stalwarts and evangelicals for whom conviction and shared values are everything. Romney's ugly win in Ohio only continues to raise doubts about the soundness of his enterprise: Is he only ahead, eking out these victories, because he has an enormous advantage in money and organization, two things he won't have against Barack Obama?

John Dickerson - Romney Wins Ugly - Again Slate 7 Mar 12

Hmmm...  Good question.  From a Rovian hardball perspective this is not shaping up to be a very promising outcome, is it?  Not much they can do about it now but suck it up and make the best of it.


[ Parent ]
Not to Mention... (2.00 / 3)
Romney's signature post-victory blunder:


Brushing back a question about independent analyses, which conclude his plan will blow a huge hole in the budget, Romney accidentally hinted at a key fact about his fiscal policy: he left out all the hard stuff.

"I think it's interesting for the groups to try and score it because it can't be scored because those kind of details have to be worked out with Congress and we have a wide array of options," Romney said.

To the extent that this is true, it's because Romney's been intentionally vague about the politically challenging parts of his plan.

"Because Gov. Romney has not specified how he would increase the tax base, it is impossible to determine how the plan would affect federal tax revenues or the distribution of the tax burden," noted the Tax Policy Center, in their analysis of his proposal.

Brian Beutler - OOPS! Romney Lets Slip An Uncomfortable Truth About His Tax Plan TPM 7 Mar 12

In other words, Mitt:


...if you feel compelled to [go on CNBC], don't get on there and, right out of the box, tell people that your vaunted tax plan, which is going to save us all from the hellish dystopia that Barack Obama has visited upon the nation, is pretty much a fact free concoction made up of sufficient hot air to waft what's left of the nation's wealth upwards to people in your tax bracket.

Moreover, what is the second half of the argument here? Ignore all the experts who are telling you what rational human beings know in their bones, that Willard Romney believes the country rightly belongs to the people who can afford to buy it, because he and Congress will get together and correct the egregious unfairness of the tax plan that is the only raison d'etre for Romney's entire candidacy?

Charles P Pierce - It Can Be Scored: Romney's Post-Super Tuesday Blues Esquire 7 Mar 12

You can understand why his campaign has steered this guy away from debates.


[ Parent ]
I would argue one part of this ... (2.00 / 3)
because he has an enormous advantage in money and organization, two things he won't have against Barack Obama?

I quite agree that the GOP will come nowhere near OFA in organization.  I'm even willing to concede that the Obama campaign will outraise the Romney campaign.  But, the Koch Bros. have already pledged how much?  $100 million per Google.  That's a lot of dough and you know they won't pussyfoot (is that still PC?) around with subtleties.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
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