A New Egyptian President

by: Chris Blask

Sun Jun 24, 2012 at 16:00:59 PM EDT



Mohamed Morsy has been elected President of Egypt. There was much rejoicing, and there was much angst.

Rejoicing, because something like a democratic process has now for the first time elected the political leader of Egypt. Among some of those the rejoicing is due to the simple fact of his Muslim Brotherhood party allegiance. Among others it is due to his US education, two American citizen children and arguably moderate political positions.

Angst among some because he represents the Muslim Brotherhood at all, that he is the possible harbinger of an open Gaza border over which arms flow to fire at Israel.

The game is afoot among political pundits and prognosticators. What the future holds remains uncharted.

Chris Blask :: A New Egyptian President
As usual my sunny optimism sides with Mira Tzoreff instead of Zvi Mazel in the Jerusalem Post:

While Mazel pointed to the Muslim Brotherhood's history, its rhetoric and its stated aims of an Islamic Middle East, Dr. Mira Tzoreff of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University offered a more optimistic view.

Tzoreff, who has written about the Muslim Brotherhood, said while Morsy would almost certainly spout more hardline Islamic-sounding rhetoric, there would likely be a gap between what he says and what he actually does.

In order to succeed politically and economically, Morsy will have to adopt policies acceptable to all Egyptians, including liberal and secular people, Tzoreff said.

"If he does that, he might succeed in unifying Egypt and pulling it out of the socioeconomic mire," she added.

According to Tzoreff, Morsy is "theoretically capable" of succeeding, but only if he cooperates with SCAF and other parties and does not become a captive to his Brotherhood ideology.

What say you, Moose? Is it time for Joy, Angst or Pondering in and about Egypt?

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I don't think the anti-Muslim Brotherhood angst (2.00 / 1)
is the right reaction.  The fact that they entered the political process will moderate any radical views they might have as the burden of governance takes hold.  

"These are hard times, not end times." - Jon Stewart

It's very clear that there is a fork in the road ahead. (0.00 / 0)
The assumption that the new government will choose that one that absolutely positively leads directly to mass conflict and economic chaos is not as reliable as the most stressed will assume.

Down one path there is hope for stability, success, riches, rewards and legacy. Down another is pain, despair, failure and ignominy. Sure, history is full of those who choose the latter. But for my tiny view in this matter it seems that President Morsy has as much chance of choosing the former as could be hoped for.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon


[ Parent ]
The Situation (2.00 / 1)
The MB are power hungry, manipulative, and would score at the higher half of the 9th percentile on a MACH-IV test. They follow a social structure similar to a fraternity; most members that are able fund the MB, and they do have quite a rich network both vertically and horizontally. But it goes much deeper than that, children of MB parents get raised according to a specific way. I call it brainwashing, they are saying that it is according to the teachings of Islam. Thus at heart the MB are a mixture of (prioritized) theocracy and technocracy.

Their definitive goal is to simply dominate by any and all means. Doing that through politics, economy, or technology is irrelevant, they are quite persistent. Though they are also obviously traditional, unenlightened, and inflexible. And like any other theocracy, they had quite the bloody history and radicalism.

Given this brief introduction; Egypt will economically partially recover and have an overall enhancement of government. Although it will do poorly at diplomacy, at first, but it will become better with time. Though political instability will remain for an unpredictable period of time due to the cultural shock of the rather moderate non-authoritarian side of the society with the salafy portion of it, though at first it will mostly be welcomed by a majority of the population. Because of the deep social pressures in the society and the demographic nature of Egypt, segregation is quite unlikely and costly to implement.

Iff they do not dissolve their ideology and integrate with the different alternatives in the MENA region, Egypt's rule in the hands of MB will not endure, they will simply, given sufficient time, indirectly disintegrate.


Tres insightful (0.00 / 0)
So you are basically saying that this first president doesn't have a huge hope of being the bridge to modern democracy, but if he fails at that he will likely be the one before the bridge to modern democracy.

Not a lot more than could be hoped for. I wish him the best inasmuch as he tries to move towards that bridge, given the challenges.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon


[ Parent ]
Interesting. (0.00 / 0)
http://personality-testing.inf...

Your score was 41 of 100.

This puts you in the category of the low Machs, people who will hold out for the goodness of the world and avoid manipulation. Not the people Machiavelli would approve of.

Ol'Mach was too cynical for me by far, so I already did't approve of him. [nyah]

"hold out for the goodness of the world and avoid manipulation"

Damn straight.



"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon


[ Parent ]
I hope it isn't crap like this (2.00 / 2)
that is motivating Morsi's interest in working more closer with Iran:

http://forward.com/articles/15...

Yep.  Apparently, the Iranian VP is claiming that the "fact" that there are no Zionist drug addicts (wouldn't that be nice?) represents evidence that Zionists, and the 8th century compendium of rabbinic literature called the Talmud (which a majority of Zionists do not live by) are behind the international drug trade.

Just as with the claims that Jews were behind the slave trade, what I want to know here is...where's my cut?  

The future is unwritten


Iranian officials are climbing over each other to demonstrate Teh Crazy. (0.00 / 0)
That's the measure of the new Egyptian government: is Teh Crazy the primary job requirement.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
Hmm... (2.00 / 1)
is Teh Crazy the primary job requirement

Maybe they've been following politics in the U.S. too closely.

This is not a recession. It's a robbery.


[ Parent ]
BTW: People use drugs because (2.00 / 1)
they want to.

"Conway, whom experience had taught that rudeness was by no means a guarantee of good faith, was even less inclined to regard a well-turned phrase as a proof of insincerity."  James Hilton, Lost Horizon

[ Parent ]
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