Open Thread: Down to the Wire

by: Shaun Appleby

Sun Oct 21, 2012 at 17:20:38 PM EDT

Closer than we would like but it looks like we're going to win this thing:

Bottom line: right now the candidates are dead even in the national vote, but it's slightly trending towards Obama, perhaps beginning after the second debate or perhaps a bit before that. To the extent we can tell, the electoral college plays a bit better for Obama than it does for Romney, meaning that in a tie election overall it's more likely that Obama wins. It's a very close election, and no one should believe that it's all over by any means. But there's no question that I'd rather be in Obama's position than in Romney's going into the last debate and then the final weeks.

Jonathon Bernstein - State of the race: Obama is slightly ahead Washington Post 19 Oct 12

So besides obsessing over polls, poll averages and the Undecided what's up in the world today?

Shaun Appleby :: Open Thread: Down to the Wire
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RIP George McGovern (2.00 / 2)
Lost in the homilies to McGovern's heroically doomed campaign against Nixon in 1972 is his actual impact in shifting attitudes away from wars of national ideology and conscription; the McGovern-Hatfield Amendment was a direct confrontation of executive power by explicitly defunding the war.  While it never came close to passing it was important in consolidating reasonable and urgent opposition to the war and the circumscription of the power of Congress to declare war.  McGovern made a huge difference in reshaping American attitudes toward Viet-Nam.

I'm Not Much... (2.00 / 1)
For fifteen minute YouTubes but if you're going to watch any it might as well be this one. Yeah, I know, it's a TEDx talk but still:

"We grow too soon old and too late smart."

So What's With this Iran Negotiations Business? (2.00 / 3)
The New York Times, as it does, dropped a front-page bombshell; and nobody can figure out if it is a good or a bad thing in respect of the debate tomorrow.

Puzzling.  I mean, you would think that the prospect of a negotiated settlement with a nation with which you regularly considered pre-emptive war would be a positive.  Not in our America, though.  And the Obama people understand this.  I'm guessing it was leaked so Romney couldn't make a scandalous revelation out of it if true.

Imagine how difficult it must be to govern this bloody country sometimes.  Sheesh.

interesting piece here: (2.00 / 3)

The big loser in all of this is coherent argument. The British have a word for Romney's five-point plan of vagueness and obfuscation: waffling. One would think that a contender for the presidency wouldn't be allowed to play so fast and loose with his positions. Granted, it's not easy to take aim at a rapidly moving target, but there seems to be a general inhibition about forcefully calling out dodgy claims, as though truth itself were a function of party allegiance.

and check out the comments.  holy rombots. [I AM FOR TO MAKE COMMENTS. AFFIRMATIVE]

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey

LOL (2.00 / 4)
A theatre critic lecturing the media on how to properly do "theatre criticism" of the presidential debates.  That's a keeper.

[ Parent ]
Completely off topic (2.00 / 4)
But we all need a lift for our spirits, and what could be liftier than seeing a baby elephant get rescued from a shallow well?

The video compresses a 30-minute struggle of three very brave people but includes a tear-jerking happy ending:

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

By the way (2.00 / 4)
A friend pondered what baby, mom and auntie might have been saying to each other during rescue and reunion.

I replied:

Well, I know what baby was saying throughout the ordeal:  "MOM! MOM! MOM! MOM!"

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
So... (2.00 / 1)
Nobody wants to jinx the debate by live-blogging it?

Not me (2.00 / 2)
In fact, I'm probably not going to watch it; I simply can't stand watching Romney blather.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 1)
So be it.  Fingers crossed.  I've actually lit a candle and am burning incense this time.

[ Parent ]
For what it is worth I hate, loathe, despise national polls. (2.00 / 3)
They should mean nothing.


(I am about on election overload; I simply cannot believe it is this close.)

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

I just want it all to end (2.00 / 3)
With, natch, a happy ending.

Well, as happy as it can be with nearly half the electorate so crazy I fear eruptions of violence when That Awful Negro gets another four years to sully the purity of the White People's House.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
And we do this every four years. (2.00 / 3)

Media already starting to talk about 2016.  MAKE.IT.STOP!

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Honestly, I'm probably just gonna tune out after this year (2.00 / 2)
I'm just disgusted by it all.  

[ Parent ]
I have to agree with you on the state of the media. (2.00 / 2)
We have not at all completed the transition from the Old Media to the New, whatever it turns out to be. But "the media" these days is the worst pile of sewage I can imagine.

I can't even blame the people involved, I don't think. They have no better idea of how to be in the media and have jobs than the rest of us, other than doing exactly what they are doing.

It's embarrassing. I feel for you having to work inside it and only hope that you are young enough to be part of whatever replaces it. It has to be better, certainly can't be any worse.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."

[ Parent ]
the problem now (2.00 / 2)
is that its all about getting traffic to websites, because the print and TV versions aren't profitable.

To get traffic to websites, you need to create or piggyback on a narrative.

And the conservative media has completely monopolized on narrative setting.  

[ Parent ]
Race is playing more a part than I would like to admit, I admit. (2.00 / 2)
One pundit tonight pointed out that Romney has an enormous lead among white men. There are certainly demographic reasons for that that are not racially biased, but the overt and unconscious racial threads are entirely too plain to see.

This, too, may serve us all well in the end. These factors will be picked apart for many years and will lead to a lot of introspection down the line.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised people are surprised (2.00 / 3)
Romney is the perfect American candidate. Rich, white, handsome, bullshit artist who can BS with a smile. He's daddy.

[ Parent ]

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