Open Thread: The Race is On

by: Shaun Appleby

Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 18:43:06 PM EDT



Five days to go and after a week of nail-biting, media horse-racing and a deadly storm which it seems we weathered as best we could there are some good signs for the Obama campaign.

Florida and Virginia, all but out of the game a week ago by consistent but narrow margins, are back on the menu:


Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, which once looked like they were slipping more into the Romney orbit, have pulled back to essentially even-money contests.

The seven jump ball states with a total of 94 electoral votes are Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13).

Charlie Cook - Chance of Split Electoral-Popular Vote Very Real National Journal 30 Oct 12

Recent polling in both states, while marginal, shows an occasional Obama lead:


Quinnipiac University, on behalf of CBS and the NY Times, stuck a dagger in Romney's Ohio hopes by showing President Barack Obama up 50-45, as well as a one-point lead in Florida and two-point lead in Virginia.

Kos - Obama's crazy good polling day Daily Kos 31 Oct 12

This is an improvement, though well within the margin of error.  Keep the faith Mooses, this is close but Romney has failed to move the needle in the past ten days and time is running out.  He's in Florida tomorrow if that is any indication of the state of his internal polling.

Shaun Appleby :: Open Thread: The Race is On
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Race Overview (2.00 / 7)
From the Washington Post opinion columns:


Obama campaign has released a new Web video on the state of the race, including this claim from campaign manager Jim Messina:


We are ahead or tied in every single battleground state. That means that Mitt Romney has to win not only all the toss-ups, but also a couple of states where we have a clear lead, in order to have any chance of winning the presidency.

According to averages, the only swing state where Romney clearly leads is North Carolina. Romney is up one in Florida, and Virgina is tied. Obama is up in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. So if you believe the averages, in addition to North Carolina, Romney does have to win a host of states where he's either tied or behind. Obama has more maneuvering room: If he wins just the states where he's leading, he secures reelection, and he also obviously has a shot at all the ones that are tied.

Greg Sargent - The Morning Plum: Why Romney is struggling in Ohio Washington Post 31 Oct 12

Booyah!


Barbaric (2.00 / 5)
If you were wondering about the likliehood of Romney's head fake toward Michigan or Pennsylvania having any substance:


Senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod is confident that the president's reelection chances aren't  in danger in Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, despite tightening polls there. And he's willing to put his money slightly above where his mouth is.

When pressed by MSNBC host Joe Scarborough on Wednesday morning about the slimmer margins in these states, where Obama once led comfortably, Axelrod said he would shave his mustache live on "Morning Joe" if President Obama lost any of the three.

"I will come on 'Morning Joe,' and I will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states," Axelrod said

Scarborough reciprocated, promising to grow a mustache of his own if Obama wins Florida or North Carolina.

Natalie Jennings - Axelrod bets his mustache on three states Washington Post 31 Oct 12

Heh.  Morning Joe, now with caterpillars.


I have to say I find this urge to bet things based on the outcome (2.00 / 4)
of either the race as a whole or on individual states more than annoying.  Scarborough and Nate Silver were tweeting about a bet of their own.  Maybe I'm just losing my sense of humor but a whole lot of folks stand to lose a lot on this election and privileged white dudes somehow think betting stupid shit is appropriate.  Because no matter who wins or loses they will be just fine except maybe for some damage to their egos.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Good Point (2.00 / 4)
However I can see this as an attempt to break through Village idiocy with something on the intellectual level of the pundits; as we know reason is a poor second to the banal chit-chat of the likes of Scarborough.  The trivial subjectivity of our Blitzers is how our electorate wants it, apparently, and consequently it rises to the top of our journalistic pecking order.  It is a mortal embarrassment if you ask me and I hope history records our collective responsibility in this matter.

Reality television is the "revenge of the chuckle-heads" and we are awash in it; from the History channel to the nightly news broadcast we have soothing, content-free programming that reinforces the smug superiority of an audience committed to intellectually lazy mediocrity.


[ Parent ]
The Learning Channel (TLC) too (1.83 / 6)
The channel was founded in 1972 by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare and NASA as an informative/instructional network focused on providing real education through the medium of TV; it was distributed at no cost by NASA satellite. It was privatized in 1980 and was then named the Appalachian Community Service Network.

Top shows on the channel now?

My Crazy Obsession

Toddlers and Tiaras

Say Yes to the Dress

Extreme Couponing

Sister Wives

My Big Fat Gypsy Wedding

The Little Couple

Cake Boss

What Not To Wear

Long Island Medium

My Strange Addiction

19 Kids and Counting


Privatization.  Yay.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Gotta give you a "meh" (2.00 / 1)
I heart(ed) "Say Yes to the Dress" and "What Not to Wear" and, not on the list, "Trading Spaces."

And WTF is "Sister Wives?!"

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
polygamy. yep, polygamy reality show. (2.00 / 3)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
p.s. my wife likes those you mentioned too (2.00 / 4)
my point isn't that all those shows suck as entertainment, it's that they're not for learning.  i don't vote for barbara boxer because she does a nice job with foundation make-up or because her shoes match her belt. i don't care how slimming vertical stripes are (very much).

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Exactly (2.00 / 3)
Nothing wrong with fluff until it subsumes everything.  We are headed that way and I submit Romney's campaign of vacant lies, and the bovine reaction to it of the media, as Exhibit A.

[ Parent ]
Exhibit B (2.00 / 3)
Pundit's rationale for moving Ohio to "toss-up:"


That [misinterpretation of recent polling] - coupled with the state's electoral history and the absolute necessity for Romney to win the state if he wants to be president - leads us to move it back to the "tossup" category.

Chris Cillizza

That's just one egregious example but we wade through this kind of slush daily and have it broadcast into our living rooms 24/7.  Orwell was right.


[ Parent ]
For Example... (2.00 / 4)
If any of you ever poked around the CRS website this is particularly chilling:


WASHINGTON - The Congressional Research Service has withdrawn an economic report that found no correlation between top tax rates and economic growth, a central tenet of conservative economic theory, after Senate Republicans raised concerns about the paper's findings and wording.

Jonathan Weisman - Nonpartisan Tax Report Withdrawn After G.O.P. Protest NYT 1 Nov 12

We are entering into uncharted territory in our dealing with public "truth."  Orwell remains a salutary warning.  Don't hold your breath waiting for this to be reported anywhere else.  Blink and you would have missed it.


[ Parent ]
I think "no impact" is likely pushing the bounds of reason. (2.00 / 3)
5% vs. 95%? Bound to have some impact.

Depends on the dataset, I suppose. Top tax rates as extant in American history of the past 100 years? Top rates ever, anywhere?

If nothing else, variance in top tax rates can move funds from one economy to another with lower rates, and that has to impact both.

Economic models are a perfect example of my point about decisions, below. Economic models fail because they only look at numbers, whereas human decision making is based largely on feelings and motivations. There is no numerical reason for "general mood" impacting an economy, but it most empirically does.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
Well... (2.00 / 3)
In summary:


There is not conclusive evidence, however, to substantiate a clear relationship between the 65-year steady reduction in the top tax rates and economic growth. Analysis of such data suggests the reduction in the top tax rates have had little association with saving, investment, or productivity growth. However, the top tax rate reductions appear to be associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution.

Thomas L Hungerford - Taxes and the Economy: An Economic Analysis of the Top Tax Rates Since 1945 CRS 14 Sep 12

Are we talking about the same thing?


[ Parent ]
Ah, that is more clear. (2.00 / 3)
I'm not about to study the damn thing and all the related data behind it to have any intelligent comment, but that helps explain the report and the pushback. The key phrase is "appears to be associated with".

I guess the argument could run along the lines that other factors come into play, which is always where economic analysis runs into trouble. Lining up larger sets of data and looking at them together (the meat of economic analysis, and no doubt what Mr. Hungerford did) is the only way to have intelligent commentary to add.

The meaning of "little association with" is an interesting tributary. Did the data indicate little positive, little negative, little with interesting sidenotes about other trends in some cases but not others?

I am not arguing for either point of view, the only way to do that is to do the actual analysis (then do more...). My skeptical bone tickles when folks say "doing this has no impact on that" when most everything in fact impacts something, but what Hungerford says is more specific than that. Lowering top rates is associated with capital pooling at the top, which would draw down capital in the middle and bottom unless the pool of capital expanded at a greater rate (and then causality would need to be demonstrated). That it has little impact on "saving, investment or productivity growth" could either show that it didn't help or it didn't hurt (or neither).

I hate economic models.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
Reported Anywhere Else... (2.00 / 3)
Besides Wonkette, that is.  Those folks are quick:


Well, they SHOULD be concerned about the findings, as they make the Republican rhetoric of the past decade or five look kind of ridiculous. But this is America, where we are well beyond economic research or labor statistics or believing people who are paid to research things. Everybody knows anyone who disagrees with Republicans is just a liberal in a labcoat. Plus, "evidence" sounds an awful lot like Sharia law.

Rich Abdill - GOP Senators Have Had Quite Enough Of Your 'Research' And 'Economics' Wonkette 1 Nov 12

From the comments, "Wouldn't it have been easier to just shout 'USA! USA! USA!' at the report until it burst into flames?"


[ Parent ]
Not to Mention... (2.00 / 5)
The inestimable Mr Pierce:


In short, the resolutely non-partisan Congressional Research Service issued a report saying, essentially, that almost 35 years of Republican economic policy was sheer lunatic moonshine.

Charles P Pierce - Doing a Number on the Job Numbers Esquire 2 Nov 12

Republican math... Oxymoron?


[ Parent ]
asdf (2.00 / 5)
Portrait_of_Galileo_1636

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
I "fierced" this 'cause of the "meh" :) (2.00 / 4)
FYI, shoes had better not match the belt and vertical stripes are definitely a fabulous friend to have.  :)

And yes I get your point.  TLC is like MTV ~ where's the learning and where's the music?

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
I Hope... (2.00 / 3)
You don't take my fractured rant as sheer arrogance.  I can understand the importance of vertical stripes and so forth.  It's just when these tendencies in our popular culture overflow their banks into news and documentaries that I mourn the loss of respected traditions.  And don't shoes and belt still need to match for blokes?  I'm a bit out of touch on these matters.

[ Parent ]
Well? (2.00 / 3)
I'm still dangling on the shoes and belt question.  I've been told I dress like someone hastily evacuated from a fire in a Goodwill store so the belt and shoes thing is my one sartorial anchor.  Help me out here.

[ Parent ]
Don't let it be true. (2.00 / 3)
I keep a fairly dignified imagine (at least in my mind) by my black belt and black (polished) leather sneakers matching as part of my Official Uniform. If I have been wrong all along about that I just don't want to know.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."

[ Parent ]
Heh (2.00 / 3)
Doc Martens for me.  Corporate corridors can be a tough neighbourhood.

[ Parent ]
Sorry! got busy with work. (2.00 / 5)
Depending on the outfit the two need not match even for dudes.  If you have browns/tans/yellows a brown belt with black shoes (even Doc Martens) is fine.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette

[ Parent ]
Sacre Bleu! (2.00 / 4)
Or black or brown as the case may be.  I had no idea.

[ Parent ]
today: (2.00 / 3)
i wore these shoes: http://www.zappos.com/clarks-t...

belt like this: http://privateislandparty.com/...

these jeans: http://bananarepublic.gap.com/...

and this shirt: http://www.ebay.com/itm/mens-B...

shoot me straight, haps.


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
What color suspenders (2.00 / 5)
should I wear with that brown belt?

WTF is this, an episode of Moose Eye for the Straight Guy?

And could an admin remove my double post at the bottom of this diary. I blame caffeine tremors.  

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Nothing wrong with cake boss. (2.00 / 2)
The others can DIAF.  I don't get cable/satelite anymore anyway, so none of the crap bothers me.

Though the point is salient, and well taken.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)


[ Parent ]
give me iron chef, or give me death (2.00 / 3)
and the japanese version please, not the american spinoff.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Agreed (2.00 / 3)
No premise too dumb or vulgar.  We don't respond well to prosperity and security; it is well we revere those who fought and died for our privileges but they would be stunned at what we have wrought with them.

[ Parent ]
I'd argue that people apparently want to hear what they think they (2.00 / 3)
already know (ie., FNC).  CNN lost its way when it tried to go the Fox route after Fox already had a lock on that demo.  And I somehow doubt that Silver winning the bet is going to change anyone's mind about his methodology and/or his so-called bias.

I always find it funny that the media mourns the passing of one of their own, like Cronkite or Ed Bradley, with much gnashing and wailing about how fabulous they were as journalists and then turn around and keep doing the same shit they've been doing for years.  I actually firmly believe there is a huge market for unbiased (as much as that is possible) news; the media just wants to have it too easy.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


[ Parent ]
Sadly (2.00 / 4)
I think that "huge market" is a fiction.  Walk in to any book store (yeah, I know) and try to find the non-fiction section that isn't narcissistic self-help books and then count the titles over four hundred pages with footnotes.  We've burned the library of Alexandria in our hearts.

[ Parent ]
word. (2.00 / 4)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
"It is a mortal embarrassment if you ask me" (2.00 / 6)
Following that link, dear Shaun, leads one to the most deliciously vicious skewering it has been my pleasure to read in a long time:


"No one wants to look like a nincompoop on Nov. 7th. You can't get in too much trouble with 'too close to call!' - especially if everyone else is saying it," Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan told POLITICO.

Peggums, sweetie, in your case, "looking like a nincompoop" is a horse that has left the barn, run over the hill, sired twelve A-level stakes-race winners, and is now buried with honors on the backstretch at Keeneland. Trust me on this

.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
How dare you claim that the History channel is trash? (2.00 / 5)
Do we not need a constant stream of Nostradamus, UFO, and end-time prophecy programming?  If that's not history, I don't know what is.

[ Parent ]
Interesting Commentary (2.00 / 3)
Both pro and con on the Nate Silver bet controversy.  I'm with the sports writers on this one.  Even if Nate is wrong it's his methodology which is at issue, not so much the outcome.

It seems to me the motive of his critics is more a defence of "shoot from the hip" subjective punditry than anything else.  Whether betting on the outcome makes sense I leave to others but it seems reasonable that explaining the premise of his methodology has failed to make any impression.  

I am all too familiar to the glazing-over of eyes whenever one gets into the weeds in my line of work as well.  What my clients usually want is a subjective assurance of success rather than a cogent analysis of the prospects; in other words a virtual bet.


[ Parent ]
What was that about well-strung words popping up around here? (2.00 / 2)
What my clients usually want is a subjective assurance of success rather than a cogent analysis of the prospects; in other words a virtual bet.

That is a great deal of human decision making. It is remarkably reliable.

We like to believe we make decisions based on facts and data. The reality is that we form feelings based on facts and data, much of which is gathered more from inference than directly.

The feelings are what we make decisions on.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
I'm Guessing... (2.00 / 2)
You see a lot of that yourself in your line of work; when you are actually talking to the people signing the cheques.

[ Parent ]
Yep. (2.00 / 2)
More than simply checks, though. Whether you engage in a project, what path you take in terms of doing or not doing something about a security challenge, whether you engage in a working group, etc.

It is comforting to think that the big decisions being made by large or critical organizations are all backed up by empirical quantification. Sometimes they are. But as often as not the go/no-go is as much a comfort level based on intangibles as it is numbers.

Even when everyone involved thinks it is numbers.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 1)
It strikes me as a bit unfair in that rather than sharing the risks based on empirical analysis one shoulders the burden on a handshake, but that is my experience.  But you make your own luck in IT, with caveats.

[ Parent ]
Ohio (2.00 / 9)
As election day approaches the polls get more accurate:


Despite Ohio's demographics and history, the polls suggest that Obama holds the votes necessary to win the Buckeye State and the presidency. If the polls look the same heading into Election Day, undecided voters wouldn't be enough to sway the outcome of the state and Romney's chances would hinge on low Democratic turnout or his ability to peel away Obama supporters.

If there was more time between now and November 6, perhaps Romney would stand a chance of mounting a comeback. But the space between Obama's share of the vote and 49 percent isn't the only window that's closing; Romney is nearly out of time.

Nate Cohn - Romney's Window In Ohio Is Closing New Republic 31 Oct 12

Yes...  And headed for Florida to head off a slumping lead there.


I understand the desire for caution, but I think it's unnecessary (2.00 / 7)
Unfortunately for the poor people of Ohio, the state has been polled about a bajillion times over the past month.  Romney has led in one or two of them.  Overall, the vote will be close, but in terms of the likely victor, I think there can be little doubt that all signs point to Obama winning.

I would also point out (2.00 / 6)
That this election cycle has been a lot more exhausting than others.  I'm burnt out, and I'm tired of Romney's shiznit.  Tuesday can't come soon enough, and I don't think a little chest-puffing is going to affect things either way.

[ Parent ]
Heh (2.00 / 5)
On exactly the same page.  Probably explains light turnout here; I just haven't had the will to write sometimes.

[ Parent ]
moustaches won't be enough (2.00 / 7)
If Obama wins (and I think his chances are excellent) I'll be looking for statements from Rubin, Will, Morris, Rove, Krauthammer, Scott Rasmussen, and everyone else who blustered about how Obama can't win and Romney is poised for a landslide and they know what the "American people" want and think and love...

There's gonna be a reckoning after this election.  There's never been this much data and flack circulated so widely.  Those who made unequivocal pronouncements that were proven false should be made to respond.  And they should lose the right to tell the American people what the American people think.  For good.  Speak for yourselves, jackasses.  

In general, bullshitters need to be made to dangle on hooks.  If not, their pronouncements need to be thrown in their faces every time they make another one.  Especially Dick Morris.  Every time he appears on any show, the moderator should be obligated to respond with "yes, I understand you are confident about this, but did Condi defeat Hillary in 2008 or not, and what happened to the Romney Landslide?"

The future is unwritten


[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 5)
As if.  On the other hand they'll be fighting amongst themselves like plague rats in a sack.  That will be worth watching.

[ Parent ]
They'll probably just blame Mitt and continue on (2.00 / 3)
The House Republicans will still act like the idiots we know so well, I don't think much will change.

[ Parent ]
Re: Rubin, I wrote this at GOS (2.00 / 4)
We need a "Mock Jennifer Rubin" app

Whenever anyone spots JR in public, they launch their app that maps her location. Then people nearby can point, laugh, ridicule, boo, whatever. Perhaps public humiliation will finally stop these assholes.

Extend that to all those wingnut welfare assholes who live in cities other than DC. I would use the loser "L" hand signal on the forehead whilst emphatically pointing.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Ah... (2.00 / 2)
How is this not a form of stalking?  Seems to me the ignominy of defeat will be a clarifying tonic in some cases.

[ Parent ]
Not stalking (2.00 / 4)
Nobody is following them. Just making others aware that the asshole in question is in their immediate vicinity. No different than someone exclaiming that a (positive) celebrity is across the street.

The ignominy of defeat has done nothing to rid us of these mercenary tools. Active shaming and shunning will be much more effective. If they change their behavior then the public activities would cease.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
OK (2.00 / 3)
I'm not gleeful that you gave me the notion of supposing I was Ms Rubin, it's distasteful, but if I were her I would probably not see the distinction as clearly as you make the case for it.  I guess that I'm supposing that the hope that annoying, misleading public advocates would change their ways is a bit wishful, even when I do it myself.  They're here for the same reason the possums are, or are not; the niches of our political ecology.  If the ecology changes they will migrate or adapt or disappear.

I was shocked, in late 2008, to realise that the descendants of the Birchers and Wallace supporters were still among us.  They were here all along but had been shamed into keeping their opinions to themselves by social pressure.  Elect a black man president and the levies break; a whole cohort of "plain-spoken" Palins legitimise what was taboo for a generation.  Looking back on it shaming them into grudging silence was probably the best we could have hoped for, so I take your point.  But I think it is something that has to happen collectively, socially and somewhat consciously rather than hunting for any specific pelt.


[ Parent ]
Except of Course... (2.00 / 3)
For 'big game.'  Eroding Rush's advertising revenue strikes me as a useful hobby, for example.

[ Parent ]
Listened to a full minute of him driving back last night, too. (2.00 / 2)
Really, awfully, horribly unbearable. I used to have a lot more tolerance for that, and sometimes could even agree with points made by him and his ilk.

Not sure if he/they have just gotten purely toxic or if I just don't have the patience for it anymore.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
We Have... (2.00 / 2)
Our equivalent antipodal monstrosities but one virtue of life in Australia is I never have to listen to Rush; not for a single accidental moment.

[ Parent ]
I'm Feeling Pretty Good... (2.00 / 5)
It's amazing how this election had eroded my mood over recent weeks.  Whenever things looked bad I started researching a multi-diary history of fascism.  Don't know how I got here but now reading Alexander Werth's excellent Russia at War 1941-45.  Very soothing.  

John Newman's Oswald and the CIA just gave me the creeps.  As an aside I've come to see the Watergate event as a CIA counter-coup directly related to the earlier Kennedy assassinations; Richard Nixon's rise and fall is one of the darker chapters of our history.


[ Parent ]
Our long national nightmare is almost over (2.00 / 7)
All will be fine after Tuesday.  Which is good, because I've got a baby girl on the way and plenty of work to do in the meantime.

[ Parent ]
Yes (2.00 / 7)
Agreed.  Good luck with the birth and all the changes it will bring, it is a sacred time.

[ Parent ]
LOL LOL LOL (2.00 / 6)
Oh, that's a good one!

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
stow-len! (2.00 / 5)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
/snort (2.00 / 6)
cliffschecter 4:16pm via Web

Call it hunch, but seems Chrysler execs annoyed w/Mitt & Trumps Jeep/China lies MT @RalphGilles: @realDonaldTrump you are full of shit!

Ralph Gilles is VP of Product Design for Chrysler.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will come wrapped in teh stupid and waving a gun" ~ Esteev on Wonkette


Obama's gonna (2.00 / 5)
LOOOOOSE

/Eyore.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)


el oh el (2.00 / 5)
(I see what you did there)  

Just because they are posting on a progressive site doesn't make them progressives. - John Allen

[ Parent ]
;) (2.00 / 5)
Seriously, though, I'm feeling pretty good.  Looking forward to the VA results Tuesday.

Wifey is in full-on GOTV mode (running the DFL satelite out of the labour temple) Union thugs are out-volunteering DFL shunts 7:1 or so.  I'm holding down the fort, and the boy and I will be doing some painting today.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)


[ Parent ]
Friday's job report prediction (2.00 / 3)
The BLS report will be the final one before the election. Most likely, only an extreme report will have a significant effect. A very bad one is not likely but a great one is.

Here is the chart of the ADP report showing October +158k jobs.

CW is calling for +125k jobs. I'll go to the high side of +150k and +25k for previous months adjustments.

The U3 unemployment number is a real crapshoot. CW is saying 7.8% +/- .1%. What makes this a difficult call is the extent of discouraged workers reentering the job search market. I'll go with the optimistic number of 7.7% but hoping it's 7.5% just to watch Jack Welch stroke out on CNBC with Larry Kudlow.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


Seems to Me... (2.00 / 3)
Anything south of 8% is good enough in horse-race terms.

[ Parent ]
Agreed (2.00 / 2)
8% is the political Mendoza line (although the trend is a better measure, witness FDR).

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Well, close enough for hand grenades (2.00 / 5)
Not too far off and on the right side of the jobs number but, boy did I lowball the revisions which were +84k total:

... the Labor Department announced Friday that the nation's employers added 171,000 positions in October, and more jobs than initially estimated in both August and September.
...
Job gains in previous months were revised to show bigger gains. September's increase of 114,000 new jobs was revised to 148,000, and August's 142,000 was revised to 192,000 ...

The U3 rate came in +0.1% due to more workers entering the job search market, but still below the reelect Mendoza Line of 8.0%.

 The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9 percent in October, from 7.8 percent in September, as more workers joined the labor force and so officially became counted as unemployed.
...
The latest figures are probably good news for President Obama. They officially recorded a net gain in jobs under his presidency, and they allayed widespread suspicion that September's large drop in the unemployment rate - below 8 percent for the first time since the month he took office - might have been a one-month statistical fluke.

NYT - Modest Growth in Jobs Seen in Final Report Before Election



There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Closer (2.00 / 5)
You couldn't make this sh*t up:


In what his campaign billed as his "closing argument," Mitt Romney warned Americans that a second term for President Obama would have apocalyptic consequences for the economy in part because his own party would force a debt ceiling disaster.

Benjy Sarlin - Romney: Elect Me Or House GOP Will Wreck The Economy TPM 2 Nov 12

These folks are going to have me rereading Spengler.


[ Parent ]
Romney is just recycling the National Lampoon (2.00 / 8)
cover from 1973, 'If you don't buy this magazine, we'll shoot this dog.'

I believe that is Seamus on the cover.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Heh (2.00 / 5)
Shorter:


Vote for Romney, or else the Republican House will feed the nation's economy into the woodchipper.

Charles P Pierce - Romney's Last Stand: From Now On, It's Him-Him-Him Esquire 2 Nov 12

Nice little recovery you've got there...  Pity if something were to happen to it.


[ Parent ]
Interviewer: I've been told (2.00 / 5)
Mitt Romney nailed your head to the floor.

TP: No. Never. He was a smashing bloke. He used to buy his mother flowers and that. He was like a brother to me.

Interviewer: But the police have film of Mitt actually nailing your head to the floor.

TP: (pause) Oh yeah, he did that.

Interviewer: Why?

TP: Well he had to, didn't he? I mean there was nothing else he could do, be fair. I had transgressed the unwritten law.

Interviewer: What had you done?

TP: Er... well he didn't tell me that, but he gave me his word that it was the case, and that's good enough for me with old Mitty. I mean, he didn't want to nail my head to the floor. I had to insist. He wanted to let me off. He'd do anything for you, Mitt would. /mp

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Sobering essay at CNN (2.00 / 5)
On what the author posits are disturbing parallels to the racist devolution of Reconstruction:

http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com...

He opens with this:

A tall, caramel-complexioned man marched across the steps of the U.S. Capitol to be sworn into office as a jubilant crowd watched history being made.

The man was an African-American of mixed-race heritage, an eloquent speaker whose election was hailed as a reminder of how far America had come.

But the man who placed his hand on the Bible that winter day in Washington wasn't Barack Obama. He was Hiram Rhodes Revels, the first African-American elected to the U.S. Senate.

His election and that of many other African-Americans to public office triggered a white backlash that helped destroy Reconstruction, America's first attempt to build an interracial democracy in the wake of the Civil War.

To some historians, Revels' story offers sobering lessons for our time: that this year's presidential election is about the past as well as the future. These historians say Obama isn't a post-racial president but a "post-Reconstructionist" leader. They say his presidency has sparked a white backlash with parallels to a brutal period in U.S. history that began with dramatic racial progress.

And goes on to develop his thesis with troubling observations on a number of points.  It's an unsettling read -- not least given the "nothing to see here, move along, and besides, any racism is coming from the Dems" comments he's garnered from the rightwing side.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.


I've said for a few years (2.00 / 3)
that Obama's election made racism worse. So many became delusional over it. In a lot of white neighborhoods, everything is seen as a racial plot- from FDNY testing to the direction of flight paths into the airports.  

[ Parent ]
Really? (2.00 / 3)
Blaming Obama's election for making "racism worse"?

Racism has always been here, simmering under the surface.  That the election of a black man to the nation's highest office has brought it to the surface does not make it "worse."  It makes it more obvious, which can be considered a good thing.

You must root out evil before you can eradicate it.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)


[ Parent ]
He's Not... (2.00 / 2)
Blaming Obama.  I can see where "the election of a black man to the nation's highest office has brought it to the surface" could be described as "making racism worse" and I tend to agree.  It surprised me too but there it is.

It's all for the best in the long run but it ain't pretty.


[ Parent ]
It's not Obama's fault (2.00 / 2)
It's an unfortunate biproduct of his election  

[ Parent ]
didn't say you blame obama (2.00 / 2)
I am disagreeing that it "made racism worse"  I am saying it simply brought it to the surface, like a pustule.  The infection, as it were existed before, it was just festering below the surface.  Now that it is on the surface, people can see how ugly it is, and it can be rooted out and, hopefully, eradicated.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
Go!... Geraldo??? (2.00 / 3)


John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."

Sic 'em. (2.00 / 3)


John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."

[ Parent ]
That... (2.00 / 3)
Was worth watching.  It's about time.

[ Parent ]
Huh? (2.00 / 3)
That clip is titled "Geraldo slams GOP" but that's not what plays, which is an attack on Obama.

I found a Yahoo story indicating Rivera made a series of tweets slamming the Benghazi politicizing:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lo...

Is this video clip, with its misleading title, a ruse designed to suck Googlers in search of Geraldo's criticism into watching a Fox News slam of the President?

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.


[ Parent ]
See Chris' Second Attempt... (2.00 / 2)
Dunno what happened with that first one.  Someone may have swapped YouTubes or something like.

[ Parent ]
I watched most of teh second one (2.00 / 3)
But truthfully, they were screaming over each other so loudly, I couldn't make out much of what they were saying beyond "NUH-UH!!!!!"

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
I think the first clip was the period before the second. (2.00 / 3)
I had seen the second clip and assumed that was it. Posted before watching the whole thing.

I think Geraldo and Christie are signs that some are beginning to see it as a better career path to move away from the ODS crowd.

John Askren - "Never get into a pissing match with a skunk."


[ Parent ]
I Was Kind of Impressed... (2.00 / 1)
That Rivera staked out the high ground above those puffing blowhards and asserted moral authority.  May be a lesson there for the Left.  As it turns out Fox is working against the national security interest for their own petty motives with this whole story (see below.)

[ Parent ]
Wanted to embed latest Huffpo tracking graph (2.00 / 6)
But when will soapblox upgrade to accept iFrame? The Rommentum looks like a typical variation now. Good thing we've learned to chill with the up and downs of polls over the last five years of Obama.

Meanwhile, for LOLs and giggles, let me post Rupert's most recent response to the end of the Romney surge, and my response to my favourite media mogul



The p***artist formerly known as 'Brit'


Surprised... (2.00 / 5)
Rupert could use the phrase "monolithic media" without bursting into flames.

[ Parent ]
Looks Like Fox... (2.00 / 1)
Has blundered straight into an intelligence quagmire with their attempts to "expose" the Benghazi tragedy and blame Obama or Clinton:


Having previously been accused of leaking classified information about the killing of Osama bin Laden for political purposes, [the Obama administration] saw that exposing the covert side of the Benghazi operation to protect itself weeks before the election would be fraught with political risks.

Massimo Calabresi - Report: Benghazi Presence Was a CIA Operation Time 3 Nov 12

You may have heard it here first.  Good on ya, Fox; anti-patriotic, bigfooting chowder-heads.


A vote for Romney is a vote for Satan (2.00 / 5)
Or so Bill Keller of votingforsatan.com tells us. Here is Bill "wearing the Mormon magical underwear".

On the other hand, I am encouraged to join 1,671,624 other souls and "VOTE FOR JESUS!" by the eponymous voteforjesus.com. They helpfully provide "Instructions for each state how to write in a vote for Jesus as President (Click Here)"

Now, there is actually a point I am trying to make here. I've felt all along that at least 10% of the McCain Fundie voters would not vote for Romney due to his Mormonism. Instead of 75% going R, I think the 2012 number will be less than 70%. This would equate to approx. 1.5M less votes.

The 2 examples above are some of the below-the-radar screen action I expect is going on at the Fundie grassroots. This is part of the 4-5M votes less that I think Romney will get than McCain due to Mitt being a dick and a fundamentally crappier candidate.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


Speaking of Numbers... (2.00 / 4)
This should give Romney's people heartburn:


The campaign revealed some impressive results from its grassroots operations so far. Team Obama says the campaign has registered 1,792,261 new voters across the battleground states. That's "nearly double the number of voters the Obama campaign registered in 2008," according to the campaign.

Evan McMorris-Santoro - Obama Camp Claims 1.8 Million New Swing State Voter Registrations TPM 3 Nov 12

Mocking Obama for being a community organiser?  Read it and weep.


[ Parent ]
That's the killer (2.00 / 4)
The Koch brothers marketing air warfare strategies have missed the basic element of the southern strategy. No matter how much they broadcast, there can only produce only so many angry white voters.

Meanwhile, the Obama grassroots organisation didn't need to convert anyone - they just needed to register them

It's like Vietnam all over again (apologies to any Vets). You can try to bomb people into the stone age, but they still occupy the ground.  

The p***artist formerly known as 'Brit'


[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 4)
Speaking of bombs, you may not be far off as far as polling and GOTV strategy goes.  Not to mention electioneering chaos, missing overseas absentee ballots, long lines and truncated early voting, and other shenanigans.  And this charmer.  Sheesh.

[ Parent ]
More numbers ... (2.00 / 5)
From the underlying pdf:

The math is clear: our opponent is losing among early voters in nearly every public poll in every
battleground state, meaning that if these public polls are right, he would have to win 65 percent
of the remaining votes in North Carolina, 59 percent in Iowa and Colorado, 58 percent in
Nevada, 55 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 52 percent in Virginia and Wisconsin.

If you read the press release, you come away with the conclusion that Romney is not even going to break 50% of the remaining votes in the above states on election day. I'm sticking with my prediction prophecy (thx shaun!) of 53 to 44 (OK, I fudged and moved 1% from 3rd party to Mitt. So sue me).

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Hmm... (2.00 / 5)
I'm still wondering whether those 1.7M new registrations made it through the pollsters' likely voter screens; and if so when.  If they weren't on the previous electoral rolls they may have been missed altogether; add that to the clever OFA strategy of getting the least likely voters to the polls earliest and you have a fairly promising situation.

[ Parent ]
Groucho's secret word (2.00 / 5)
is "Sporadics". They, and the new registrants, did not make it through the likely voter screens. Nate Silver states that the real number is about midway between the RV and LV, I think this election it will be 3/4 of the way towards the RV.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!

[ Parent ]
Works for Me (2.00 / 4)
Never mind the polling metrics are now stronger also:


President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.

Nate Silver - Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased NYT 3 Nov 12

Seems to me if this goes as predicted there is going to be a fundamental question or two about the media coverage of the "horse-race."  At least there probably should be.


[ Parent ]
There's a dynamite diary at GOS (2.00 / 5)
If Minorities Vote, Romney Can't Win: Gaming Out the Popular Vote Possibilities, where you can estimate Obama's margin by guessing the: level of minority participation more/same/less than 2008, white total percentage of vote and white vote for Obama.

In order to get my 9%, I'll go with more minority participation than 2008, 71% white vote and 42% white vote for Obama due to (white) women's gender gap.

The Latino charts confirm my estimate that the pollsters are 1-2% low re:Obama due to their inability to reach this largely cell phone and Spanish speaking demographic.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Selzer poll sponsored by (2.00 / 5)
the Des Moines Register (IA) (yeah, the one that endorsed Romney) had O-47 R-42 and in the crosstabs

Romney, a Republican, does best with evangelicals (26 points better than Obama)

Uh, if this were 2008, it should be a 40 point edge. Perhaps a harbinger of lower Fundie support for the Mormon Bishop.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Hmmm... (2.00 / 4)
Are you saying they're staying home?  I just don't see it; maybe they're just not self-identifying as "evangelicals" when polled.

[ Parent ]
I think it's a combination of things (2.00 / 5)
Undervotes, not voting the Pres. line but straight party R otherwise. 3rd party for Virgil Goode. Write-in for Jesus H. Christ. And then non-votes.

Romney is a Mormon Bishop, Richy-rich, not-a-war-hero and a dick. People are not motivated to come out and vote for this asshole. They are not going to risk their immortal soul for this loser if they figure Obama is going to win anyway.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Hope You're Correct (2.00 / 5)
My reading is the antipathy toward Obama is an overriding factor; I am coming to loathe these folks.

[ Parent ]
Quote of the Day (2.00 / 4)

The Party of Lincoln has become the party of Lincoln's assassins...

Tom Scocca

Ouch.


Moosey Predictions!!! (2.00 / 8)
Here's mine.  I'm going conservative, mostly because of nerves (conservative, not unthinkable upset):

President Obama: 290 (50.6% pop. vote)

Other guy: 248 (49.1% pop. vote)

Battlegrounds: Obama takes NV, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA; Other guy takes CO, NH, NC FL

Senate predictions: Warren and Nelson and McCaskill win, Kerrey fizzles.  Nothing else exciting happens.  Maybe Mourdock goes down, but I doubt it.

House predictions: West, Walsh, and Bachmann all lose, complicating the narrative that moderation is bad for the GOP.

Fall-out: GOP will blame Sandy and Christie and moderation, in spite of Walsh, West, and Bachmann.  Maybe they will be accused of being insufficiently conservative, whatever that means nowadays?  

Maybe the anger at Sandy will lead the GOP to take up climate change.  Nah.  There will be a few pundit mea culpas to Nate Silver, who really won't care in the least.  Dick Morris will employ a weird strap contraption to enable him to suck his own toes (sorry about the visual, folks).

Oh, and the other guy will declare victory anyway, 10 minutes after conceding to the very same audience...and claim that he's been 100% consistent in claiming victory and that he's never lost anything...ever.

What are you all expecting?

The future is unwritten


pretty much the same (2.00 / 5)
Except Obama gets Colorado, and  51.5-47.5-2

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
Dunno about Colorado (2.00 / 3)
But I think Obama can eke out New Hampshire.

If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
Seems a good bet (2.00 / 4)
Pres. drew 14,000 people today in NH.  Biggest campaign event in state history.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
Over at Booman Tribune (2.00 / 4)
BooMan reports this:

Just heard from an organizer in NH that we are meeting our targets and have the state won unless our models are wrong.
 
http://www.boomantribune.com/s...

Also, from that same thread, from priscianus jr.:

Regarding AZ, a factor to consider is that a lot of Democrats, and especially Latinos, are all fired up to vote the despicable Joe Arpaio out of office as sheriff of Maricopa County. Thus there is every reason to expect a VERY strong turnout of so-called "unlikely" voters in that county, which has not been reflected in the polling.

Maricopa is home to nearly 60% of Arizona's population.


http://www.boomantribune.com/s...


If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done subjunctively.

[ Parent ]
Hate to Say It... (2.00 / 3)
But I think an unexpected late little drift to Romney meets an unexpected sliver of support for Obama and we just squeak out a win.

[ Parent ]
But... (2.00 / 3)
Republicans are going to get caned in the Senate and House races beyond expectations.

[ Parent ]
347 EVs, O+3 pop. vote. (2.00 / 8)
Same square I've been on 4eva: sweep of swings, including: MI, PA, WI, OH, IA, VA, NC, FL, NH, NV and CO.  I think OFA has expanded the electorate in ways that pollsters are NOT  capturing in LV screens (new reg's and hispanics especially).  Also, I think pundits and polls inflate the importance of 'Independents' as swing voters (srsly, the increase in the number of "Indies" since 2010 is proportional to loss of GOP party IDs -  these are Paultroons, nth degree wingnuts, and a handful of moderates disaffected with teabaggery).  They have the same pool of voters to pull from, we now have a much larger one.

People are waiting 6+ hours to vote early in FL.

GOTV, and it's done.

/hopemonger

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
from your keyboard to the electorate's ears (2.00 / 6)
Is Tester a goner?

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
dunno (2.00 / 4)
i haven't looked at that race very much this time, BUT, it's gonna be close. i just walking in from a 2.8 mile run, so my endorphins are telling me that rehberg's going dark to play safe at the finish is a mistake that might give the race to tester by a nose(hair).

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
Just saw that (2.00 / 4)
PPP has Tester +2.

The future is unwritten

[ Parent ]
works for me. (2.00 / 3)


Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
You and I have agreed (2.00 / 6)
on 347 EVs for quite awhile. I'll differ on the pop. vote and go with +9. A Colorado R operative said the Obama ground game should add 2-4 points to their polls. I like the high-side of +4. I made the case above for a Romney Fundie vote 10% lower than McCains. We agree about the LV screens. And I think the gender gap will come in at the high end.

The Senate will be 56D/I-44R. I like Tester due to Gov Schweitzers political machine. Bob Kerrey has come from nowhere to have a legit chance.

The House is a razor-edge tossup. I give it +/-5 seats.

The big one to watch in Washington state is not same-sex marriage, but marijuana legalization. This could be the beginning of the end of the ruinous War on Drugs aka send young AA men to prison and whites to rehab.

There was only one joker in L.A. sensitive enough to wear that scent...and I had to find out who he was!


[ Parent ]
Yeah, i tend to hedge pop. vote (2.00 / 3)
though i don't really know why, the margin vs. mccain ended up bigger than I thought it would be in '08 too.  

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


[ Parent ]
wow (2.00 / 2)
i sure hope u r roght.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
has anyone seen george will's last marble? (2.00 / 4)
it's gone missing.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/11...

that's a daily caller link to vid, so bundle in latex and take some activated charcoal before clicking.

he predicts a 321-217 landslide for romney, including a win in (drumroll) minnesota.

Earth is the best vacation place for advanced clowns. --Gary Busey
 


LOL (2.00 / 2)
Obama has this here in minnesnowta.

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
Strictly... (2.00 / 3)
Political junkie stuff and you need to wade through six whole minutes of Wallace sandbagging Axelrod over Libya to get there but some interesting moustache talk about battlegrounds from the current champion:

Also loved the ending where Wallace again invites Obama for an interview and Axelrod, when pressed, says, "I've learned a few things on your show, Chris"

To which Wallace replies wistfully, "Well, I'm sorry about that."


Ahahahahaha (2.00 / 3)
The last twenty seconds was awesome!

Howard Dean is my guy. (in a strictly nonsexual fashion)

[ Parent ]
Yeah... (2.00 / 2)
I quite enjoyed that.

[ Parent ]
Search




Advanced Search
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


Blog Roll
Angry Bear
Angry Black Lady
Balloon Juice
Black Kos
Booman Tribune
Charles P. Pierce
Crooks and Liars
Daily Kos
Five Thirty Eight
Huffington Post
Juan Cole
Maddow Blog
P.M. Carpenter
Political Wire
RumpRoast
Scholars & Rogues
Smartypants
Stonekettle Station
Talking Points Memo
The Field
Washington Monthly
Wonkette
Moose With Blogs
Atdleft
Barr
BorderJumpers
BTchakir
Canadian Gal
Charles Lemos
Cheryl Kopec
Curtis Walker
Douglas Watts
Hubie Stubert
Intrepid Liberal
ItStands
Janicket
JoeTrippi
John Allen
LibraryGrape
MichaelEvan
National Gadfly
Peter Jukes
Senate Guru
Zachary Karabell




Back to Top

Posting Guidelines  |  FAQ  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact the Moose  |  Contact Congress
Powered by: SoapBlox